Waiting for Obama

The Filipino people will be waiting to hear what President Obama will say about America’s commitment to defend Philippine territorial sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea.

Prior to his visit, Obama declared that the United States-Japan mutual defense agreement includes defending the Senkaku Islands which is being claimed by both Japan and China. The Philippines is hoping that the US President will use the same language when he talks about the Philippines and its territorial claims in the West Philippine Sea.

Some geopolitical observers, however, point out that we should be careful in interpreting policy speeches. Obama said that the United States takes no position on whether the disputed islands in the East China Sea belong to China and Japan. Then why is the US obligated to defend Japan in this territorial claim? Because he noted that historically Japan has administered the islands. Put another way, Japan has administrative control over the Senkaku Islands. Therefore, any attempt to seize the islands would be considered as an invasion of Japanese territory.

In the case of the Philippines, we have no administrative control of the Scarborough or Panatag Shoals since the Chinese forcibly evicted our meager forces in that area. But the Ayungin Shoals is a different story since we still have those valiant Marines on a rusty ship holding fast in that area. The Philippines can therefore claim administrative control of, at least, the Ayungin Shoals.

It is important for all of us to remember that what we are witnessing during this four-day visit of Obama is just a manifestation of Great Power Politics. In order to understand this type of politics, there are a few simple realities that one must remember.

First, in the history of mankind no country has ever risen to the status of a world superpower peacefully. All superpowers have achieved that status through violence and through subjugation, overt or covert, of their neighboring countries. Even the ancient Great Powers like Egypt, Persia, and Rome are examples. In the last two or three centuries the world superpowers were, at different periods – Spain, Portugal, France and the British Empire – “where the sun never sets.” In the last century, several countries tried and failed, particularly Germany and Japan. Now, the superpowers are again Russia and the United States.

As China becomes increasingly a wealthy country, it will strive to be a superpower. It cannot be expected to achieve this status peacefully.

Another reality is that all aspiring superpowers will aspire to gain hegemony over its region. The United States is continuously trying to dominate Latin America. Russia has and will keep trying to dominate Eastern Europe. And China will, sooner or later, try to dominate East and Southeast Asia which includes the Philippines.

The third reality is that the most important component of superpower status is military power and not economic power. Germany and Japan are among the world’s biggest and richest economies. However, they are not superpowers because they lack the military might. China will be expected to build an overwhelming military force if it ever wants to be a superpower.

What then will China’s neighbors do in the face of this rising superpower? Most of these neighboring countries will seek a balance of power. We can expect a coalition of these countries – Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and possibly Indonesia and Australia.

 This coalition will be expected to seek an alliance with the United States – the other superpower. Geopolitical analysts, like John J. Mearsheimer, author of The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, have correctly concluded that China is more threatening to Asian countries for largely geographic reasons. China is an Asian power and has territorial disputes in the region. The United States is much less threatening because it is geographically far away and has no territorial disputes. On the other hand, one could say  that the United States is more threatening than China to a Caribbean country like Cuba and Venezuela also because of geographic proximity.

Anals Nin once wrote: “A war regarded as inevitable or even probable and, therefore, much prepared for, has a very good chance of eventually being fought.” This is the greatest danger the world now faces.

We can only hope that all this Great Power politics will not result in any war. We can continue to hope that all these geopolitical observers are wrong and the world will see a new age where disputes can be settled peacefully and the global focus is on eliminating poverty and providing equal opportunity for all peoples.

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Young Writers’ Summer Hangout/The Saturday Writing Prompt Hangout

Where The Write Things Are, a writing center which aims to nurture and nourish the writing potentials of interested writers of all ages, presents the Young Writers’ Summer Hangout at Fully Booked in Bonifacio Global City for would-be writers from ages 7-15. Scheduled for six sessions starting on May 5, 2014, the workshop is headed by author Neni Sta. Romana Cruz and seeks to lead students to discover the writer in them using various creative, engaging and fun methods wherein different forms of writing and well loved books will be shared. A starter book of the student’s writing is the expected end product.   

All classes will be taught by Neni along with Roel Sta. Romana Cruz, both published authors who have mentored young writers. With the sheer enjoyment and love of words, books, and the craft at the forefront, the Young Writers’ Summer Hangout is definitely a fruitful and productive way for your child to spend the summer and make his or her own unique contributions to the wonderful and beautiful world of stories.   

For those interested in individual sessions, The Saturday Writing Prompt Hangout offers hands on writing sessions specifically designed to cater to your child’s writing needs. Whether it be for fiction, poetry, essays or any other writing style or genre, the goal is to hone your child’s talents and writing skills through guided and timed writing sessions, feedbacking and learning from the works of other writing buddies as well as beloved books and authors, and the freedom and space to allow the writer in your child to sprout wings and flourish.

Because we all share in the immense love for the written word, no two sessions will be alike as we understand the unique gift for writing waiting to be unleashed within each child. And as those blank pages get filled with your child’s words, there’s no harm with having fun while learning and the development of talent takes place.

For information on how to register and other inquiries, email [email protected] or call/text 0917-6240196.

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Email: [email protected]