What's next?

A cat and mouse game of sorts between two Chinese Coast Guard vessels and a Philippine maritime research vessel occurred last Saturday off the waters of Ayungin Shoal. You recall that on March 9, two Philippine maritime vessels on their way to BRP Sierra Madre which rests on top of Ayungin Shoal were blocked and told to leave the area by Chinese coast guard vessels, citing them for entering Chinese sovereign waters. The vessels were on their way to re-supply the grounded ship, and to rotate a fresh batch of Marines stationed on the vessel. Airdrops had to be done to supply the poor Marines stationed in the rusty, decrepit ship which serves as an outpost and claim to the shoal.

This time, the Philippine vessel would not be prevented from reaching the BRP Sierra Madre. On board were members from the media, to capture whatever the Chinese would do. And they were not disappointed. Two large Chinese coast guard vessels tried to block the path of the much smaller ship, blowing their horns and calling out to our vessel to stop and turn around. A threat was even made in that we were to be responsible for our actions. But when the waters around the shoal started to become shallow, the large ships gave up their pursuit, and the Philippine contingent was able to reach the BRP Sierra Madre. I'm sure the Chinese complained to high heavens to their superiors regarding the defiance of the Filipinos. The station has been re-supplied, and the Marines rotated. Mission accomplished.

Several other things have happened over the weekend. We submitted a memorial to the UN, challenging China's "nine-dash line" claim to the entire South China Sea. China has warned that filing the memorial would worsen tensions between the two countries, even threatening sanctions. Well, we did file the memorial, we did re-supply our station, and we are still pursuing arbitration of the whole issue of territory with the UN, of which China does not want any part of. They just want dialogue between us and them. That is while they flash their military might. Right. We also, by the way, signed contracts to purchase new fighter jets and combat utility helicopters from South Korea and Canada respectively. That should bring China's blood to a boil.

But China knows it cannot really do anything to physically antagonize the Philippines without drawing the ire and criticism of a large part of the world. Particularly the United States. The US has constantly criticized, even in harsh words, China's handling of the territorial disputes. But do the Chinese really care what other people think? They have not really done so in the past.

It is anyone's guess what the Chinese will do next, especially when the UN does come out with a decision. They were never known to take rejection lightly, as some experts also have stated that whatever decision the UN makes, China couldn't care less. They will still claim the whole ocean, and will probably continue the harassment of our fishermen and ships. It would be foolish to think that we could match their military might with the purchase of new planes and helicopters.

So indeed, what's next?