A new deal

When a framework agreement for peace is signed, we cross our fingers and hope for the best.

By President Aquino’s timetable, the Bangsamoro political entity would have replaced the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) when his term ends in 2016.

“Replacement” is a word that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) demanded in the peace negotiations, according to the government panel.

A key difference between the ARMM and the Bangsamoro is that the new autonomous region will have a ministerial form of government, with voters directly picking parties whose members will then select their ministers.

This autonomous, secular government will have wide powers over economic activities and revenue generation in the Bangsamoro, including the exploitation of natural resources.

Another difference is that the MILF has agreed to “normalization” or to gradually lay down its weapons, with the national police and Armed Forces of the Philippines providing security in the Bangsamoro until a regular regional police is formed. There was no “decommissioning” or normalization under the peace treaty with the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF).

A third difference is that there will be a mechanism for transitional justice and reconciliation. Chief government negotiator Miriam Coronel Ferrer told us they wanted to “de-emphasize the judicial recourse” including punishment. Instead they want to focus on documentation of the conflict and the steps leading to peace, and find modes for reparation.

As envisioned, the Bangsamoro will include the current ARMM along with the cities of Cotabato and Isabela in Basilan, six towns in Lanao del Norte, plus all the villages in six towns that voted for inclusion in the ARMM in the 2001 plebiscite. Other areas can seek inclusion in the Bangsamoro as long as the land is contiguous to the special region, and if the local government passes a resolution or at least 10 percent of the qualified voters in the area seek inclusion two months before the ratification of the Bangsamoro Basic Law.

The “road map” starts with the creation of a Transition Commission, which will draft the Bangsamoro Basic Law and submit it to Congress. P-Noy will certify this as urgent. Once enacted, the law will be subjected to a plebiscite in which the affected areas will also vote for or against inclusion in the Bangsamoro entity. More than one province must vote for inclusion to create the Bangsamoro.

If the basic law is ratified, the ARMM is deemed abolished. Members of the Bangsamoro Transition Authority will be appointed. Under the envisioned timeline, the election for the Bangsamoro government may be held simultaneously with the general elections in May 2016.

The Bangsamoro entity will then be signed, sealed and delivered by P-Noy to his successor.

Once all aspects of the agreement have been implemented, both parties will sign an exit document, officially terminating the peace negotiations.

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Certain government officials have sighed to me that the landmark event seems not to have elicited the kind of public excitement reserved in other countries for progress in their own peace initiatives.

Foreign governments in fact seem more excited about the event, promising development assistance for the process and the Bangsamoro once it is created, and marveling at the fact that a predominantly Catholic country is giving Muslims autonomy.

This is probably because Pinoys know we already have an autonomous Muslim region and an existing peace treaty with the original separatist group. That autonomous region is one of the poorest in the country – the site of at least two major election cheating scandals, plus the massacre of 58 people by (it is widely believed) the clan that controlled the ARMM for a decade.

Will the MILF do better? In free elections, will its political party win? And if it doesn’t, will it abide by the results?

Is a ministerial form of regional government even allowed under the Constitution? The peace panels think so, citing provisions in Article X on the creation of autonomous regions. But this question may reach the Supreme Court, derailing the P-Noy timetable.

The framework agreement’s annex on “transitional arrangements and modalities” states that the Transition Commission will work on constitutional amendments “whenever necessary” to “accommodate and entrench” the agreements of the government and MILF.

This has created some confusion, as Malacañang has said Charter change is not needed to implement the agreement.

In terms of mood creation, that military attack on lairs of the MILF breakaway group Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters looked like a preemptive strike against potential saboteurs, but it also gave the impression that the signing of the framework agreement triggered more armed conflict.

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Ferrer and presidential peace adviser Teresita Deles, who visited The STAR last Friday together with panel member Senen Bacani, have always acknowledged the difficulties still ahead.

The MNLF faction under founding chieftain Nur Misuari, who signed the 1996 peace deal, is a particular challenge.

Deles says the framework agreement did not abrogate the 1996 pact as the MNLF says. “How can you wipe out something that has become reality?” she asked.

She recalled she and the panel members were meeting with P-Noy before their departure for Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia when Misuari loyalists launched the siege of Zamboanga City on Sept. 9 last year. The peace panel asked Indonesia, facilitator of the 1996 peace treaty, on Sept 10 and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation on Sept. 12 for any help to resolve the conflict.

“None of the eight countries present offered a proposal,” according to the government’s Q&A handout.

The peace process cannot give Misuari “what he wants, which is perpetual entitlement to leadership of the ARMM,” according to the Q&A. But Deles stressed “we’re open to engage.”

Another lesson learned from the 1996 pact is that a peace deal must be backed by development. The World Bank is assisting the government in crafting a Bangsamoro Development Plan through which foreign assistance will be channeled to the new entity.

The MILF has three development priorities: education, health and livelihood opportunities. Eventually the group hopes to promote tourism. “They don’t want to be forever dependent,” Deles said.

She admits there were low points when the panel felt overwhelmed by the challenges.

“(But) it’s not my job to keep in that mode for long. By the next morning we go again,” Deles told us. “It’s not going to be easy. We know it’s not yet time to rest. These challenges will come but it will not deter us. It will not deter the process.”

In 2013 taxpayers forked out P314 million for the peace process. This year the amount is up slightly, to P321 million.

“It’s cheaper than war,” Deles said.