Reversal of fortune

The two key players and those close to them will surely notice the dramatic reversal of fortune.

Joseph Estrada, ousted 13 years ago today as president, is mayor of Manila, the city of his birth. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, installed as his successor by people power and the Supreme Court, is detained without bail, in the same government facility where Erap was also placed under “hospital arrest,” for the same offense: large-scale corruption or plunder.

For Erap, his new circumstance must be extra sweet because he defeated an incumbent who abandoned the Estrada Cabinet to join EDSA Dos (although the defector got booed by the crowd).

Another key player, whose defection to the EDSA Dos forces was a turning point in the revolt, shot himself at his mother’s grave after being accused of corruption in his days as a military officer. Erap reportedly believed there was a special place in hell for Angelo Reyes, but later said he had forgiven his former military chief.

If Erap’s political foes are to be believed, he may yet see his vindication overturned. Since the Christmas season, rumors have circulated that the Supreme Court (SC) is set to release its decision on a petition seeking his disqualification as mayor – and that the decision will not be in his favor.

As of the weekend, the word from the Erap camp was that rumors of his early DQ were greatly exaggerated. If the rumors turn out to be true, however, it will be another addition to the list of unfinished business in Erap’s life  (something he likes to joke about): dropping out of college, failure to complete his presidential term. And now the DQ?

Kuwentong cochero abounds in this town, so this story could be in the same league as rumors of a P100-million slush fund to persuade SC justices to uphold the legality of the P-Noy administration’s Disbursement Acceleration Program (DAP).

The DAP controversy has been damaging to the straight path or daang matuwid, although so far, outsiders generally continue to be impressed with President Aquino’s focus on the fight against corruption. So do many Filipinos, if the latest survey results are accurate.

But a recent survey among businessmen also showed that midway through P-Noy’s term, grease money continues to oil the wheels of the bureaucracy. These days, people are counting down to noon of June 30, 2016 and wondering how much can still be accomplished in terms of irreversible reforms.

To push his reform agenda, P-Noy must deal with politicians, allies and foes alike, who have long resisted any reforms threatening the status quo that has been hugely beneficial to their personal interests.

Crooked politicians cannot remain in power without the support of their constituents – an indication that people themselves are willing to tolerate a degree of wrongdoing on the part of public officials.

*   *   *

In the past year, several of P-Noy’s political allies and officials have themselves been implicated in corruption scandals, prompting at least one, Ruffy Biazon, to relinquish one of the most coveted government posts in this country.

How much corruption is P-Noy willing to tolerate to push his reform agenda?

That midnight insertion of lump sum pork barrel “realignments” during the bicameral conference on this year’s appropriation law gives us an idea of the spirited resistance to fixing a system that ain’t broke as far as politicians are concerned. It’s telling that P-Noy approved the realignments, even with conditions attached.

Thirteen years after EDSA Dos, and nearly 28 years after the original people power revolt, the ousted president who was convicted of plunder is mayor of Manila, and the woman who replaced him, held without bail for the same offense, has won a second term as an honorable member of the House of Representatives.

The widow of dictator Ferdinand Marcos has won a fresh term as congresswoman while their only son is a senator who has made no secret of his hope of winning the presidency in the near future.

A comment that I am increasingly hearing these days, especially after Super Typhoon Yolanda, is that in 2016, people may be willing to tolerate a bit of corruption in exchange for more competent governance, that the choice will boil down to which is the lesser evil.

Why do we have to choose between competence and corruption? Good governance is clean, honest and effective governance. Transparency and the absence of corruption are supposed to be indispensable elements in good government.

P-Noy effectively has only a little over a year left to push his reform agenda and leave enduring accomplishments. By mid-2015, the unofficial campaign for the 2016 presidential race would be heating up.

The previous year started out on a positive note, with the nation getting its first investment grade and other gains on the economic front. The year, however, ended with the prospect of another crippling power crisis and the rubble of Tacloban still waiting to be cleared – as if someone had made good on his word that the city was on its own, bahala na kayo sa buhay nyo.

In between, there was the pork barrel scandal followed by accusations hurled by an ambassador of a $30-million shakedown by the manager (still in his post) of the Metro Rail Transit. Both issues are unresolved.

P-Noy must show early signs this year that it’s the good news of the past year that will be sustained in 2014, while the negative developments will be reversed.

The new year opened with reports of the realigned but not eradicated congressional pork barrel, and Erap’s son Jinggoy allotting P100 million of his P200-million “pork” to dad’s city. What’s wrong with that picture is clearly lost on both father and son, who were originally co-defendants in the plunder case that led to Erap’s conviction.

These days, Erap, vindicated by his election victory, can crack jokes about being an “ex-convict.” And he can commiserate with and visit his detained successor, the beneficiary of EDSA Dos, who looks like her health has seriously deteriorated.

By now we should have realized that change in this country does not happen after only four days of praying at EDSA. Just like spiritual redemption does not come through one day a year of walking around the city of Manila while trying to wipe the foot of a religious icon.

If there’s any lesson imparted by EDSA Dos, it’s that if we want enduring reforms, revolutions need a lot of heavy lifting, a sustained follow-through. On the part of both the government and us the governed.