Fireworks

While most of the world’s capitals were celebrating the turn of the year with dazzling pyrotechnic displays, Bangkok was witness to a different kind of fireworks. The former is supposed to drive away bad spirits and bring good luck. For embattled Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s sake, it is hoped that her lady luck has not run out. Parenthetically, the Philippines and the United States will be holding their respective Presidential elections in 2016 (a coincidence which occurs every 12 years) and the political fireworks have also started to intensify on both sides of the Pacific.

Indeed, the current political situation in Thailand presents an interesting case study on democracy which, can be argued, is reminiscent of our own 2001 “Edsa II” experience. On one side is the Thai PM and her billionaire elder brother, former premiere Thaksin Shinawatra, who was toppled in a bloodless military coup in 2006 and who now lives in exile in Dubai to avoid a jail sentence for a corruption conviction he claims was politically motivated. Yingluck came to power via a landslide victory in 2011 which both foreign and local election observers characterized as generally free and fair. The Shinawatras and their Puea Thai party are supported by the “D and E” classes residing mainly in the northern and northeastern part of Thailand and who have benefited from populist policies such as cheap micro-finance loans, affordable health care and subsidies for rice farmers.

On the other side are the protesters who draw their ranks from the Bangkok elite, the educated middle class and the more prosperous southern provinces.  They are supported by Thailand’s main opposition and oldest political party, the Democrat Party, whose leader, the Oxford educated former premier Abhisit Vejjajiva, and 152 members resigned en masse last month from the 480 member lower house.  

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The current political mess was triggered last November by the effort of the majority to ram through an amnesty bill that would have allowed Thaksin to return a free man to Thailand. This led to massive protests and renewed calls for the PM to step down.  

In response, Yingluck dissolved Parliament and called for new elections “according to Thailand’s democratic system.” Believing they are not in a position to win in such an election, the protesters have opted to boycott the same and are instead calling for the appointment of a People’s Council that will govern the country pending the passage of laws that would help neutralize the Shinawatras’ political base. The Democrat Party supports this stand but then again it has not been able to win a general election since 1992. Yingluck believes that “any government that comes to power without elections would significantly affect our image and confidence in the country.”

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Being closely watched is the reaction of two institutions. In his traditional new year’s message, the revered King Bhumibol called for “peace, prosperity and unity among Thais.” While the monarch continues to command respect among the warring factions and the general populace, his frail condition coupled with his usual hands off stance on Thai politics would probably keep him in the sidelines.  

On the other hand, there is also the potential intervention from the historically proactive Thai Armed Forces which has staged or attempted 18 coups in the last 81 years. While it has repeatedly declared itself neutral in the current political battle (in the hope of refurbishing its adventurist image), it is also no secret that many in the military dislike Thaksin.  The powerful army chief, General Prayuth Chan-oncha, recently said that “the door was neither open nor closed” on the possibility of military intervention. In a news conference held last week, he said that “anything can happen, it depends on the situation... we are trying to do the right thing, in a peaceful way and we urge negotiations.”        

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Meanwhile, over a hundred thousand Thais are looking to take over government offices in the hope of scuttling the snap February 2 elections. At 9 a.m. on January 13, the protesters plan to occupy 20 major intersections and vow to stay there until Shinawatra steps down.

Another blow to restoring democratic normalcy was the call of the head of the Election Commission to postpone the elections. “We used to think that elections were the way to solve problems in society,” Mr. Somchai said, “but the dissolution of Parliament seemed to escalate violence. It’s as if it’s not worth it to have elections.” The proposed delay was rejected by a deputy prime minister who warned that such move could lead to “prolonged violence.”

All these political fireworks have taken its toll. There have been eight casualties and hundreds wounded since the demonstrations started in November. The Thai baht is at its weakest level since March 2010 and the benchmark stock exchange index has slumped to a 15-month low. In 2013, the economy is forecasted to have grown an anemic 2.8 percent and this performance would further suffer in 2014 if the political turmoil persists.

What has confounded pro-democracy observers is that the protesters and the Democrat Party are against the holding of elections. This is probably due to the realization that their chances of winning are slim. Yet they are going against a cardinal principle of any democratic system — the majority prevails. So the protesters’ options are limited. They can advocate a suspension of the system (read: military coup), cause a change in the rules of the game (e.g., impose literacy or financial requirements on the right to vote — sound familiar?) or they can work double time within the system and convince the voters on the wisdom of their policies and justness of their cause.

So Thailand is off to a rocky start. And the way things stand, events are poised to get worse before they get better. In the vernacular, “abangan ang susunod na kabanata.”

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In memoriam: Today, the Donato/Pantaleon/de Castro/Laurel/Bautista (Do-Pa-Ca-La-Bau) clan will mark the 110th birth anniversary of their matriarch, Carmen Rivero de Donato, whose favorite advice to her grand children was “in life, it is the know-how that counts.”

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“The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.” —Wilson Mizner

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