Surveying surveys

Now that we have a fair idea of how the candidates in the 2013 elections fared, perhaps it would be informative to assess the accuracy of the pre-election surveys conducted.
At the outset, not everyone believes that such surveys are beneficial. Some pundits query as to which comes first—the candidate or the survey? Otherwise stated, are the candidates really popular with the surveys merely affirming their popularity? Or do the surveys foreshadow their popularity, thereby making their victory a self-fulfilling prophecy?
There is something undeniably persuasive about a statistic. It appears logical and inarguable. Yet, as Mark Twain once said, “facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.” Indeed, statistics may be “adjusted” to represent facts in a way beneficial to the adjuster.
Unlike surveys that sample a “known” population, pre-election polls face a tricky situation. A person who participates in such a survey may not actually vote on election day. And we often hear the comment (particularly from those whose numbers were unfavorable) that the figures found in a survey are de-pendent on who paid for it.
It was the possibility of surveys influencing election results that led Congress to propose the banning of their conduct immediately before an election. In the 2001 Fair Election Act, there was a prohibition on the publication of surveys 15 days prior to national elections and 7 days before local elections. However, this provision was held unconstitutional by the Supreme Court for violating freedom of expression.
 
So naysayers and perpetual hecklers aside, how have the surveys actually fared? The tables below are instructive:*Note that SWS correctly predicted the magic 12 although the 6-11 ranking was jumbled up. Pulse did not get #12 right but this may be attributed to its survey’s earlier date. Both outfits did not pre-dict the meteoric rise of Poe.

*Note that the 2010 surveys pretty much coincided with the actual results.

*The big surprise in 2007 was the late surge of Trillanes and the sharp fall of Recto. Note that Zubiri was leading Pimentel in both surveys but after serving more than half of the six year term, he decided to give way to the latter.
The potential danger from pre-election surveys is that many “undecided” voters may simply hitch onto a winning candidate’s bandwagon. Nothing intrinsically wrong with wanting to side with the popular but it tends to discourage voters from thinking for themselves.
And since survey organizations have a right to release their results, our goal should be to ensure the credibility and transparency of the methodology used. Hence there must be proper disclosure on matters such as: 1) who commissioned the survey? 2) what scientific methods were employed?; and 3) how were the surveys conducted? This information should be made available to the public to prevent accusations of biased surveying.
Finally, perhaps the most important take away ties with last week’s column on responsible voting: you need to conduct and trust your own research. The power to vote entails a responsibility to take a proactive role in the process. At the end of the day, surveys are only tools to assist the voter to arrive at an informed decision but the burden continues to be on each individual to vote well.

 

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Greetings: Birth anniversary greetings to two recognized captains of Philippine industry: Helen Yuchengco Dee and Ricardo C. Delgado Sr.
Nuptial blessings: Prayerful best wishes for marital bliss to long time Chinatrust friends and sweethearts Lloyd Estoperez and Rina Chua who are tying the knot.
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“A public-opinion poll is no substitute for thought.” – Warren Buffett
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