Predictable

Now that we are sure the PCOS machines will not be running on pirated software, everything about next Monday’s vote has become predictable. Focus has now justly shifted to possible political configurations for 2016.

This particular midterm election is probably the most superfluous in our political history, forgettable even before the first vote is cast. There are no major issues to be settled in this vote, no major controversies to be resolved.

This particular electoral exercise does not even contribute to rebuilding our political party system. In fact, it more likely undermines the political parties as institutions vital to any representative democracy. It is contested by two indistinguishable coalitions where the component parties of each have candidates running on the other side. For instance, the principal candidate of the PDP-Laban (Vice-President Binay’s party) is running with Team PNoy.

This campaign, in fact, started off with the two coalitions sharing “common candidates” --- a laughable concept fundamentally anathema to party politics. The “opposition” has not outlined its distinction from the administration. The pro-administration coalition, in turn, is populated mainly by unlikely allies, all itching to begin their own political plays the day after voting is done.

One cannot even say this election is a referendum on the administration. That will be giving this exercise more credit than it deserves.

The President’s Liberal Party has only three candidates of the 12 in the Team PNoy ticket. All of them joined the party on the eve of the campaign. Only one is tenuously in position in the win-column.

By contrast, the entire Nacionalista Party (NP) component of the “pro-administration” coalition appears poised to win. The NP has the deep bench and even deeper funding required to play a role in the decisive 2016 elections.

Last week, after the story about Loren Legarda’s New York property broke, the lady senator accused Alan Peter Cayetano of being behind the expose. Legarda’s defense that this was a politically motivated attack does not enlighten us about the provenance or the documentation of the property in question --- although it does enlighten us about the shifting alliances even before the voting is done.

The only reason Cayetano might have to want to drag down Legarda is to supplant her at the top of this inconsequential senatorial race. That outcome will widen Cayetano’s options and, conversely, narrow Legarda’s. In the near term, it will make Cayetano viable for leading the Senate (considering the NP will be the biggest bloc in this chamber).

Over the medium term, if he plays his cards right, Cayetano will be a strong player in the presidential contest. Grabbing the top spot in the senatorial derby gives Cayetano’s ambitious political play strong impetus. Legarda, after all, is considered a sunset politician while Cayetano (at least in the mind of his strategists) a rising political star.

This clash is not personal, to be sure. All is fair in love and politics.

A British statesman once said two weeks is a long time in politics. Going by that measure, three years is an epoch.

All the shuffling and shifting in the run-up to 2016 has begun. The senatorial derby is the initial barometer of this.

With all the polling going on through the length of the campaign, there are really only a few items of suspense here. The controversy over her undeclared properties notwithstanding, Legarda appears to have a firm hold on first place.

Only the last four places in the senatorial race appear to be the only ones contested at this late stage. The last SWS survey has Bam Aquino at 9th place, Angara and Trillianes tied for 10th and 11th places and Honasan at 12th. Jack Enrile is a close 13th while Jun Magsaysay and Migz Zubiri are tied for 14th and 15th.

At this stage, the “command votes” will figure decisively. So will the “bailiwick votes.”

Aquino, Angara and Trillianes have no real regional bailiwicks to speak of. Angara, in particular, appears to have been weakened by the controversy over the Aurora free port that has already displaced farmers and indigenous people. Honasan, historically, benefited from strong delivery from Bicolano voters. Enrile hopes to be swept into the win column by the force of Solid North votes. Zubiri’s last card is a strong performance among Mindanao voters.

The so-called “White Vote” from a coalition of Catholic groups will matter --- at the very least, in sealing Rissa Hontiveros’ fate. The “White Vote” shoots down supporters of the RH law.

Dick Gordon, in previous elections, managed to gallop into the win-column in the last stages of the campaign. This is the reason he nurses strong skepticism for the commercial polling organizations. He obviously hopes to repeat his previous feats this time around.

All the candidates mentioned above will have concentrated on tactical campaigning the past week to magnify their respective bailiwick votes and win the support of those capable of delivering command votes. At this point, we have about 9 candidates fighting for the last 4 winning slots.

If we choose to look at this elections as a proxy war between Jejomar Binay and Mar Roxas in anticipation of 2016, then the strong performance of Nancy Binay in the senatorial derby will have to be taken as a barometer of sorts. Nancy’s senatorial bid is driven not only by her father’s name but, more importantly, by her father’s electoral machinery.

In the end, the real winner of this superfluous election might not be any of the candidates voted upon on Monday. He will be a candidate in the next round for the only elective post that truly matters.