Poll surveys, campaign propaganda

Every election time, the issue on poll surveys comes up. During this election it has become more controversial mainly because the two major pollsters, SWS and Pulse Asia have not been transparent enough in telling us their clients who commissioned those polls. Hence they have been accused of being used as means to promote the candidacies of aspirants for various positions up for grabs in the coming elections.

Whatever may be their reason for conducting those polls, SWS and Pulse Asia always say that they are doing those surveys and publishing them as an exercise of their freedom of expression. The results of their surveys may not really be accurate or they may be entirely wrong, but they can always claim that no one can prevent them from airing and publishing such results. Their usual argument on this point is that, just as any citizen can air their opinions on anything under the sun, so can they, even if they are wrong.

Indeed, all citizens even if they are not pollsters with facilities and equipments to conduct surveys, have the right to tell anybody who cares to listen that certain candidates are strong and are likely to win while others are not. For doing so, they cannot really be held liable by candidates who are adversely affected by their opinion. They can always claim that as citizens, they are just exercising their freedom of speech and of expression.

But freedom should always be exercised with utmost responsibility. And as far as the pollsters are concerned, this responsibility is due and owing more to the electorate than to a particular candidate or team of candidates or political party. There ought to be a law enacted by Congress or a regulation promulgated by the COMELEC ensuring that the polls are conducted not to promote the candidacy of a particular party or candidate. For this purpose, surveys should not be conducted, or at least, should not be aired or published during the campaign period.

Actually surveys are very useful in feeling the peoples’ pulse on many other issues and happenings in society. They can certainly help in the decision making process of those involved in the resolution of said issues. But definitely, they should not be used in determining the truth, or in determining what is right and wrong. Truth is an objective reality that is not determined in a popularity contest. Thus the guilt or innocence of a person is determined in a court trial and not in a trial by publicity.

Of course in politics they are very useful, but only to the candidates, not to the electorate and to the nation. Periodic surveys conducted with systematic and scientific accuracy really help candidates first of all in deciding whether to run or not to run for any position. Then after deciding to run and during the campaign period, surveys help in determining voter preferences as their campaign progresses; in finding out how effective are their campaign strategies and thus enable them to change tactics for better chances of winning; and in gauging their chances of winning so they can decide if should continue or withdraw from the race.

Poll survey results are therefore useful only to candidates during the campaign period. There is no reason for still airing or publishing them. Indeed, the “usefulness” and authenticity of the results also largely depends on the assessments of candidates themselves. To candidates favored by poll results, they are correct and acceptable; but to candidates lagging very much behind and practically without any chances of winning, they are incorrect and unacceptable. So the results should be confined within themselves.

It may also be useful to the poll body conducting the election. They may be considered as direct or circumstantial evidence of cheating or fraud committed. They may provided reasonable grounds to form a belief that fraud and cheating happened in the voting or the counting especially if candidates without chances of winning at all as shown by the various surveys, suddenly come out as winners. In fact they may also serve as deterrents to the commission or fraud or cheating by the candidates themselves.

But to the nation especially the electorate, surveys are more disadvantageous. First of all it is obvious that survey results are generally based on the popularity or name recall of the candidates. So candidates already well known because of media exposure, or the movie and sports celebrities and those who have tremendous amount of money to spend for costly ads will definitely rate higher or even lead in the surveys. Indeed poll surveys contribute a lot in promoting politics of personality rather than politics of principles.

Another adverse effect of the surveys is that it deprives the voters of the chance to determine and find out whether the candidates are really qualified mentally, physically and spiritually; whether the candidates are the most suitable and capable for the positions they are aspiring for. In fact, surveys may also be one of the reasons behind the inept and corrupt governments we have. Because of the surveys people choose candidates based on winnability than on their qualifications and moral background.

Thus the most harmful effect of these surveys is the trending or the bandwagon effect they create. Sometimes voters may have already formed their initial preferences for particular candidates based on the latter qualifications but still change their decision because they believe they will just be wasting their votes on their preferred candidates.

So during these elections the leading pollsters should rethink their positions on whether to air or publish the results of their poll surveys. They should realize that it is for the best interest of the nation if they will just furnish the results to their clients.

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