History may be repeating itself

The increasing belligerence being displayed by this “new kid on the block” from North Korea — threatening to launch a nuclear attack against the United States and South Korea — is one situation where the intelligence community plays a critical role. After all, decisions and policies by heads of state are influenced, if not determined, by the kind of intelligence input they receive especially on crucial issues that can undermine global peace and stability.

While South Korea has placed its military on red alert status with intelligence information that North Korea is ready to launch two mid-range missiles, the South Korean Defense ministry however expressed doubts on the capability of the North to manufacture a warhead that would be small enough for a missile. The US, for its part, says it has information that makes it “moderately” certain the bellicose nation “has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles.” However, the US believes these missiles have low reliability.

People may dismiss and even ridicule Kim Jong-un as an impulsive brat out to prove that he is as bold and as hardline as his father Kim Jong-il, but who knows what this young man is capable of doing? As US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said, one cannot rule out the possibility of North Korea eventually developing a long-range missile armed with a nuclear warhead that could reach the US.

Obviously, the North Korea issue is something that has the potential of sparking a new war, with Kim’s saber rattling considered disturbing enough for G8 leaders to condemn his actions. Despite that, there is a continued element of skepticism regarding the possibility that this “problem child” would make good on his threat.

Looking back at history, a few months before the Korean War broke out in June 1950, the US Central Intelligence Agency was already aware of the increasing mobility of the North Korean Army towards the South, yet the CIA thought an invasion was “unlikely” to happen. Well, the unlikely happened, resulting in a three-year war with over 200,000 casualties for South Korea and more than 33,000 dead US troops.

The Korean War also caused the military career of Douglas MacArthur to come to an abrupt end. This World War II hero was fired by President Harry Truman on April 11, 1951 for insisting on a naval blockade and pushing into China because the Chinese had joined the war, coming to the aid of the North Koreans just when MacArthur was about to crush the enemy north of Yalu (a river bordering North Korea and China).

In the general’s famous “Old soldiers never die; they just fade away” speech delivered before the Joint Session of Congress a week after his relief as commander of the UN forces against the North, the “American Caesar” proclaimed there was “no other alternative than to apply every available means to bring (war) to a swift end. War’s very object is victory,” he said, reiterating that “there is no substitute for victory.” But like an old soldier, MacArthur simply faded away.

In hindsight, intelligence lapses combined with the “logic of disbelief” (in the words of a Washington-based writer who goes by the pseudonym “K.C. Gleason”) have been major reasons why wars break out, when in fact, these could have been averted. Such was the case with Pearl Harbor, dubbed as one of the biggest examples of intelligence failure on the part of the US. Prior to the attack, America had decoded a diplomatic message and had been warned by a military attaché in Java about an impending attack by Japan on the Philippines, Hawaii and Thailand — yet Washington did not believe it. 

The same thing happened with Operation Desert Storm. Intelligence sources had already intimated that Saddam Hussein would attack Kuwait. In fact, two weeks before Iraq’s invasion in August 1990, the US Ambassador to Iraq had already noted the heightened movement of Iraqi military near the border, yet the US continued issuing neutral and conciliatory messages to Iraq because, as the Ambassador admitted to media later, they did not think Saddam Hussein would go that far in invading Kuwait and declaring it a province of Iraq. (Everyone thought the “Butcher of Baghdad” just wanted to terrorize Kuwait into lessening its oil production and write off the $80 billion debt Iraq incurred to finance its eight year war against Iran that began in September 1980.)

It took American forces less than two months to repel Iraq, and had the US pressed its advantage and finished off Saddam Hussein shortly thereafter, perhaps the situation in the Middle East could have taken a different turn. Instead, 9/11 and the 2003 US invasion of Iraq happened, whose far ranging consequences continue to impact America and the lives of its citizens to this very day.

The world as we know it today continues to be unsafe, especially with the threat of North Korea and the possible complicity of Iran since both these countries are known to be collaborating on a nuclear weapons program. Add to that China that continues to claim territories in Asia, with the cantankerous North Korean leader merely a pawn of the Chinese — which makes our relationship with China just as crucial.

An examination of history may tell us MacArthur may have been right in describing those who derided him for being a hawk, and accused him of being a warmonger, as “blind to history’s clear lessons.” History, after all, has a way of repeating itself and the world of nations never seems to learn from the past. It’s disturbing that we are now potentially condemned to repeat it. 

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