Major threat to Asia’s economy

Despite the global financial crisis that continues to haunt countries particularly in Europe, most nations in Asia are enjoying an economic upswing, with analysts projecting regional GDP to reach $67 trillion by 2030. The Philippines has been enjoying impressive growth which prompted the World Bank to heap praises, calling the country a rising tiger economy — far from what we were once described as the sick man of Asia. 

While China has been a driving force for Asia’s robust economy and India sharing this distinction, the irony of it all is that China’s belligerence and growing aggression is emerging as the biggest single threat to economic prosperity in this part of the world. And no matter how much we try to skirt the issue and “sweep it under the rug” — there’s no question that China’s increasingly provocative posturing is a major concern for us.

As clearly pointed out, China’s saber rattling is bad economic policy, its growing assertiveness fomenting tension among nations and diverting the focus from a pressing internal matter as far as ASEAN nations are concerned, which is to establish a new regional community similar to the European Union by 2015. The World Bank has pointed out that economic prospects for the developing world remain solid but the road ahead could get bumpy. In our case, “ang daang matuwid puwedeng bumaliktad.” The fact is even China, India and other emerging economies will not be immune from the effects of the continuing global financial crisis. 

US intelligence officials are extremely bothered by the recent “geopolitical posturing” of China which could threaten stability in the Asia Pacific region and as some hawks asserted, the global scene. Michael Klare, an expert on Asia, described China’s aggression as a potential crisis of “far greater magnitude” than Iran and more imminent than many could imagine, noting that China’s determination to assert control in the energy-rich waters of the East and South China Seas could spell trouble for all nations not only in the region but globally. Acknowledging the chaos that bombing Iran could potentially inflict on oil production, Klare said a China crisis would pose an even greater risk, leading to a US-China military standoff that could undermine the biggest economies throughout the world.

Aside from taking on the Philippines and its dispute concerning the Spratlys and Scarborough Shoal, China is also simultaneously taking on Japan over Senkaku, South Korea over Ieodo Island and Vietnam regarding Paracel Islands. Many analysts are simply bewildered by these uncalled for aggressive Chinese moves. Who knows, it could really be because it’s the year of the “snake!”

But US Pacific Fleet Commander Captain James Fanell put it bluntly when he said China is on an expansion mode, describing their attitude as “what’s mine is mine and we’ll negotiate what is yours.” The escalating tension according to former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, is like “tinderbox on water” that could potentially trigger a global crisis, much like what happened in the Balkans that sparked World War I.

But some say maybe China’s actions in the disputed territories are attempts to deflect attention from the growing domestic crisis: an economic slowdown (no double digit growth); scandals rocking the Communist Party leadership perceived to be populated by corrupt bureaucrats; increasing demands for freedom in media and the Internet; deadly pollution in many parts of the country that’s causing capital flight; and most of all, the widening income gap between the rich and the poor whose restlessness is growing. These are the problems that Xi Jinping will have to contend with once he formally takes over as president next month — and so to deter domestic turmoil, the Party leadership is engaging in more aggressive and provocative behavior to channel the growing unrest to out of country issues.

US Navy Captain Fanell simply put it: China’s “harassments” over the high seas are being done “knowingly, operationally and incrementally, seizing maritime rights of its neighbors under the rubric of a maritime history that is not only contested in the international community but has largely been fabricated by Chinese government propaganda bureaus in order to ‘educate’… about China’s rich maritime history, clearly as a tool to sustain the Party’s control.”

Perhaps one good news — or as they say, “consuelo de bobo” — is that the recent Cope North drills over Guam’s skies involving the US, Japan and Australia clearly signal strategic alliances being strengthened to counter the growing militarization and aggression of China. Japanese tankers also took part in the exercises for the first time, indicating how seriously Japan is taking the situation with China.

As a sovereign nation, we really need to strengthen our military capabilities and join other nations in protecting the territorial rights of each and every nation. Our country’s strategic location — dubbed as the “gateway to Asia” due to its accessibility as the crossroads of international maritime lanes — makes us in fact a major player in all these disputes. The opening up of Subic Bay for the use of US Naval ships is a good strategic move.

But the real message for all these actions are clear: No country should be allowed to aggressively annex territories or claim them for its own without going through legal processes, and that all peace loving nations should never allow aggressors to undermine economic wellbeing and upset the geopolitical balance of the entire world.

The lessons of recent history have shown that a country’s act of aggression against another will ultimately be the start of its own undoing — something that Saddam Hussein’s Iraq learned quickly when he decided to invade Kuwait. Good will ultimately triumph over evil.

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