Playing our cards well

It was good to see PLDT Chair Manny Pangilinan seated with American bigwigs former Ambassador John Negroponte, former Ambassador John Maisto and Philippine Ambassador Jose Cuisia at the press conference of the US-Philippine Society.

He is a problem solver and that is what is needed to break the impasse in the South China Sea (the West Philippine Sea conflict. He is right that a three-pronged commercial cooperation between the Philippines, China and the US would overcome the territorial dispute and benefit all three countries.

His company, Forum Energy Plc has begun talks with Chinese state-owned offshore oil producer CNOOC on joint exploration.

To questions from media Thursday at the press conference on what will happen now that the Philippines has brought the conflict with China on Scarborough Shoal for arbitration in the UN Arbitral International Council his answer was succinct and restrained “that means the project is postponed.”

It has not helped that the Philippines should challenge China’s claims in South China Sea at international tribunal.

I think the full name of the International tribunal is the UN Arbitral International Tribunal when two parties in a territorial dispute decide to put their case for arbitration. Since the Philippines is unilaterally bringing the case to the UN Arbitral International Tribunal what is going to be arbitrated? I am not an international lawyer and am therefore puzzled how an arbitration can take place with only one side.

Without the other party there is nothing to arbitrate.

Pangilinan’s worst fear is that the joint exploration may never happen and the loss will be to all. As he earlier told a FOCAP meeting, it may never be developed.

“It is a very practical question and I guess a moral question as well: Are you prepared to set aside, but not surrender, your claim on sovereignty over the area, so you could go on and develop the area jointly or should you stick to the moral position that this is ours and no matter what happens this is ours? In which case, quite likely it will never get developed, at least not in our lifetime.” Instead of a military option and coaxing the US to come to our aid when shooting begins, he suggests that we forge a commercial arrangement and shelve the ownership issue in the meantime. Sampaguita gas field, or SC 72, on Reed Bank is believed to have up to 20 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. There are kinks in such a tripartite arrangement but the difficulties are not insurmountable if the parties stick to its commercial viability.

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The Pangilinan formula comes closest to what Deng Xiaoping envisioned in 1984. It has been a useful guide also to Chinese conflicts with other countries in the region.

The Chinese leader suggested “the possibility of resolving certain territorial dispute by having the countries concerned jointly develop the disputed areas before discussing the question of sovereignty,” writes China expert, British author Martin Jacques.

In other words the question of sovereignty should not necessarily delay moving forward on other issues like exploration. What if there was no oil or gas as it is guessed at?

“While insisting on their ultimate sovereignty over the disputed islands, the Chinese have in effect offered to shelve the matter more or less indefinitely,” Jacques adds. This is also the substance of the Deng Xiaoping and Pangilinan formulas — that we take advantage of China’s readiness for a joint venture as a first step to resolving the conflict. This column has always held that we hold a valuable trump card in negotiations for a joint venture — our claim. But we should use it to forge for cooperation not for conflict that we will not win.

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Americans are here…again with the launch of the US-Philippine Society. (In another context, Americans have always been here since they colonized us in 1898.) But this time they are here to cast their net with their charms, for more business between Americans and Filipinos.

But the US must be reminded that Philippines has another suitor, its wealthy and powerful neighbor — China. It is equally keen to do business here as it has for generations even before 1898.

The Chinese are traders. Its relation with the Philippines has followed this well trodden path from ancient times to the present.

Traditional relations with China can co-exist with new overtures from American business. It depends on which of the two can offer the better option for the Philippines. Our problem is economic. We have not developed the means to feed, clothe and shelter our poor. On this, we have much to learn from China and the miracle it achieved to lift up millions of poor. 

We can have the best of what both China and US have to offer. That means playing our cards well and not succumbing to depredations from those with an agenda that can only weaken the Philippines. It isn’t an all or nothing situation in choosing between America and China as far as the Philippines is concerned as some would like to portray the dilemma because of the territorial conflict. We can deal with both countries on a case to case basis on whatever is most advantageous to the Philippines. That is the foreign policy most Filipinos would want to see.

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On a separate note, Martin Jacques wrote in an email to this column that he understands the difficulty of pushing our government to take advantage of close relations with China.

“The problems are deep because of the legacy of colonialism and what I perceive to be a colonization of the Filipino mind as a consequence. To think that Spain took your archipelago during the Ming dynasty! That’s a very long time.”

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For Charter change advocates, it was good to hear that the visiting American businessmen are keen on seeing Charter change in the Philippines. It would be the key to joining the Trans-Pacific free trade deal.

“If we are to qualify for the TPP, we have to seriously consider amending the Constitution,” Ambassador Cuisia told reporters. Charter change advocates have long campaigned to amend the Constitution with its provisions that discourage foreign investments. Although Cuisia agreed we needed the amendments he was not ready to commit himself to a categorical statement. President Aquino has long resisted Charter change. The TPP is a US-led free trade agreement (FTA) aimed at opening up economies in the Asia-Pacific region.

At present, 11 countries — Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the US and Vietnam — are taking part in TPP negotiations.