China’s gambit

Is there something China knows that the rest of the world doesn’t? The question is asked because at the rate China is making enemies, or at least irritating those it cannot count as real allies, it will only end up alienating itself.

And that’s just the rosy picture of it. If worse comes to worst, China could end waging war on many fronts, fighting several protagonists brought together by the expediency of having a common enemy.

In the South China Sea, it could tangle with Vietnam, Taiwan and the Philippines, with Malaysia and Brunei possibly drawn in, all countries being claimants to disputed areas that China now wants to aggressively assert, with military force, as its own.

There, too, is Japan which is locked in its own territorial dispute with China over a few islands. And then there is the United States, which is tied to a number of defense treaties with some of the parties, as well as its own interests to protect in the conflict areas.

But the soft back of China is not entirely safe either. India, which previously figured in a shooting war with China, is not exactly pleased with Chinese assertions over their common disputed border territories.

In fact, so miffed is India over Chinese provocations that, far removed from its turf, it found a pretext in China’s bullying of Vietnam to come to that country’s succor. India said it will deploy its Navy to the South China Sea if its interests and that of Vietnam are compromised.

China may have recently acquired operational status for its lone aircraft carrier, a mothballed Ukrainian warship it resurrected and refurbished. But its Navy is pablum compared to that of the United States and, to a certain extent, India’s.

It’s Air Force is modern but it is doubtful if it can match that of the US and India. The only branch of service where China can probably be at par with the United States and India is its Army, which is more than a million strong.

To be sure, China is a nuclear power, just as are the US and India. But it is not expected for any of these three superpowers to resort to a nuclear resolution of any conflict that may arise now or in the near future.

In all likelihood, conventional warfare is still the big worry out there. And that brings us back to our original question about why China appears to risk it all against so many enemies that have got it surrounded.

Does China know something that the rest of the world doesn’t? As a communist country, it is not farfetched to imagine China soliciting some help from its big communist neighbor to the north — Russia.

To be sure, Russia is not exactly all hunky-dory with China. But neither is it all cozy with the US. In all likelihood, it would be easier to warm up to China than the US. But will it? Pragmatically, it might be in its best interest to be the sole and unrivalled communist power.

Hemmed in on almost all sides — hostile but small nations to the east backed by the biggest dog in the neighborhood, a jealous rival to the north, and a former sparmate to the west — there is no way China can survive if it pushes the envelope.

So does it know something the others don’t? I don’t think it knows any more than what the rest does. A good guess would be it is just taking calculated risks, in keeping with its business entrepreneurial character.

A Chinese trader will not mind raking in only a small profit, for as long as the profit is consistent. He will keep at it until everybody accepts it as the norm, or else stop him dead in his tracks, in which case he will be content with what he has acquired in the process.