When birthdates can be decisive

Never since the National Police’s 1991 foundation has the birthdate of its chief been as weighty as today. Dir. Gen. Nic Bartolome by law is to retire upon turning 56 on March 16, 2013. That’s within the election period, January 13-June 12, when government is prohibited from hiring, firing, transferring, or promoting personnel. Commander-in-Chief Noynoy Aquino would be barred from installing Bartolome’s successor until a month after the May 13 balloting. No problem, he can always request the Comelec for exemption. But then, that’s not the sole issue. Aquino wants to ensure that whoever will be on top of the PNP during the critical two weeks before and after Election Day can prepare this early. So he thinks aloud about having Bartolome retire five months earlier. Malacañang aides even float the idea of Bartolome being made Undersecretary of Interior in charge of police affairs. Perhaps, be the administration’s official congressional candidate in his and Aquino’s Tarlac home province.

All this brings to mind what man has long been striving to prove: that one’s birthdate can spell his success. Such theory used to revolve around astrology and luck, but nowadays involves scholarship: statistics, physiology, behavior.

In his 2008 book Outliers science reporter Malcolm Gladwell shows how birthdate can put one ahead of the pack. His illustration is Canadian hockey, where most of the top players were born in the first few months of the year. Nothing to do with winter or spring. Just that, the pros all used to play in the minor leagues, in which eligibility was determined by calendar year. Only tryouts born on a specific year would be accepted. Naturally those born January to April were more robust and adroit than months-younger teammates. The coaches would nurture such “abler” boys; scouts would pinpoint them for recruitment to the majors.

Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, authors of Freakonomics, spotted a similarity, in international soccer. In a 2006 New York Times essay they discussed how the January 1 cutoff birthdate for recruitment into national soccer consequently affects the World Cup. The FIFA world governing body for soccer set such cutoff date in 1997. Before that, the recruitment varied from country to country, with most holding it in August, coinciding with the start of the school year. The 1997 setting of the uniform January 1 cutoff influenced the national teams’ makeup in the 2006 regional eliminations and world championships. A third of the players were born in the first quarter, a fourth in the second, and only a fifth in the third and fourth. Before that, when most countries’ cutoff was around August, a third of the hottest players were born July-September; only a fifth were born in the first quarter.

Birthdate can also affect health. The Canadian Medical Association Journal found that toddlers born December were 39 percent more likely to need treatment for AD-HD (attention deficit hyperactivity disorder). And British researchers say that infants born March-June are more susceptible to certain disorders, like autism, diabetes, glaucoma, narcolepsy, Parkinson’s, and multiple sclerosis. Supposedly it has to do with a pregnant mom’s scant exposure to sunlight, the source of Vitamin D that boosts fetal genetic development, said Canada Broadcasting Corp.

Birthdate even affects learning. In Canada the cutoff for kindergartners is December 31, so the December-born can have January-born classmates 11 months older. A study was made in 2011 of British Columbia students who entered school in 1995, CBC reported. Intriguingly the December-born were 12-15 percent less adept in reading and numbers, and 12 percent likely to leave school, compared to the January-born. In Britain, where the school cutoff date is August 31, kids sit with classmates born September the previous year. In a 2011 survey, the August-born were less confident in their academic abilities and less likely to test for top universities. (Hmm, I was accelerated from Grade 6 to First-Year High, and was bullied by the bigger boys. I survived by tutoring them in Math and Literature. Could it have been the “stickiness factor” that Gladwell discussed in an earlier book, Tipping Point?)

Back to the National Police, graduation years from the military academy have always figured in appointment to high posts. Generals from the Class of 1981 reportedly are egging Bartolome, Class 1980, to retire early so they can take over the leadership. In September 2011, when Bartolome was about to be named successor to Dir. Gen. Raul Bacalzo, Class 1977, members of Classes 1978 and 1979 grumbled about being bypassed and so contemplating mass resignation.

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For some attendees, last week’s launch of Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile’s autobiographical book was a reconciliation with him. There was former first lady Imelda Marcos, wife of the strongman whom Enrile served and then helped to topple. Also Oscar Lopez, whose brother Geny was imprisoned during the Martial Law that Enrile administered, and from whose family Meralco and ABS-CBN were confiscated. And there were onetime leftist youth leaders Eric Baculinao and Chito Sta. Romana, who were stranded in China for decades due to threats of military arrest.

At the sidelights were mini-reconciliations too of political and personal foes. In succession outside the gala hall, half-brothers Senate President Pro Tempore Jinggoy Estrada and Rep. JV Ejercito shook hands with Chavit Singson. It was their first time to talk with Singson since 2001, when their dad President Joseph Estrada’s gambling crony instigated his ouster.

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