Who is next?

First, it was businessman Jonathan Guardo. Next was Hon. Antonio V. Cuenco. Who will be the third?

I am counting two high profile personalities who have lately changed political color. Mr. Guardo, carrying KUSUG banner, dueled with, but lost to, Hon. Tomas R. Osmeña. Their 2010 congressional dispute spilled to the courts with the businessman being subjected to a criminal process. It was the humiliation of being served a warrant of arrest that made many people think that their enmity was probably enduring.

Well, the perceived belligerence was short lived. Mr. Guardo appeared at the birthday party of his political foe where he announced, to the disbelief of many, his support to his erstwhile opponent in the 2013 polls. It was so masterful a coup that even his brother, Barangay Sambag I Captain Jerry Guardo, who had chosen to cast his lot with the incumbent mayor as a future candidate for councilor, did not know what was coming.

From the sidelines, I heard that a case of the businessman at the Sandiganbayan served as the deal breaker. Truth to tell, until someone reminded me of the criminal complaint lodged by former Mayor Osmeña, against Mr. Guardo, for some alleged unaccounted city funds for sports in the latter’s trust, I totally forgot about it. As a legal practitioner on an extended sabbatical I did not believe the rumor, but some people continued to talk about it.

Anyway, that announcement of Mr. Guardo’s siding with his former adversary had little impact. The rabid KUSUG cadres in his fold could not just make a complete U-turn. Rightly or wrongly, they attributed the arrest of their leader to no one else but the opponent. Because of their difficulty to embrace suddenly their leader’s past foe, those KUSUG leaders who revolved around the businessman during the political season felt being abandoned.

Then, the declaration of Hon. Cuenco came. He would no longer seek to represent the Cebu City South district for reasons of poor health. His followers might have accepted this rationale but some others raised intriguing questions. Honestly, I have not heard of vertigo stopping politicians from pursuing electoral objectives. Cong. Osmeña, who reportedly walks around with a medical pouch for his urinary discharge is not conceding political grounds to anyone.

Who would benefit most from the withdrawal of the ageless politician? Hon. Tomas R. Osmeña. Formulating the same question from the opposite end, we can ask: Who would suffer the biggest disadvantage from Hon. Cuenco’s desistance to pursue his return to congress? Mayor Michael L. Rama.

There is a perception that the Rama political clan is well established in the south district. It has also been shown from many elections that the south district is likewise the bailiwick of the Cuenco family. I am told that the followers of these political families are, largely, not necessarily the same. Each house can marshal its own following separate from the other. We may not, therefore, be wrong in saying that if these two powerful groups unite in a common political drive, their combined forces will run roughshod over any opposition. That was what Mayor Rama and Hon. Cuenco hoped to achieve in 2013.

When Hon. Cuenco desists from his congressional pursuit, he, in effect, puts an end to his alliance with the mayor. Their union of forces is gone. There is no more moral compulsion for his rabid fans to vote, much less campaign, for Rama. This reality is obvious especially if we consider that when he declared his decision not to run for congress again, Hon. Cuenco merely endorsed Hon. Joey Daluz, as his substitute, but he did not ask his supporters specifically to work for the mayor.

In times past, Hon. Cuenco was clear in his subservient position. He would not run for any post without Cong. Osmeña’s blessings. His recent announcement was consistent to his earlier stand. Given the intimidating character of the former city mayor, it would not be impossible to imagine that he bullied the old politician into withdrawing from the race if only to destabilize the mayor’s hold of the south.

We have just seen the movements of two political leaders in the south. I predict a third to happen soon, this time in the north. It can be grounded on technically legal footings not entirely dissimilar to that of Mr. Guardo’s.