Is One Cebu really losing its dominance?

Some observers claim that the provincial political developments of late have adversely affected the dominance of One Cebu, the party of Her Honor, Governor Gwendolyn Garcia. They opine that because of the realignments of known leaders, the Liberal Party gubernatorial bet might have an easier sailing against the candidate of One Cebu will field in 2013. To buttress their point, they cite two specific situations.

They call in an abandonment of the Garcias when Congressman Luigi Quisumbing joined the Liberal Party. In the 2010 elections, they shared common stage and helped each other. Did I hear these observers say that the Mandaue City political flank of One Cebu is immensely weakened with its loss of the legislator? There is no doubt that when such a political leader as a congressman changes coats, he carries with him some voting blocks. In this case and with his leadership, the lawmaker peels off his loyal voters away from the Garcias. And we do not even talk about his huge economic clout which, being a necessary ingredient in our kind of politics, is a lot.

But to me the alliance of One Cebu and the Ouanos, this time represented by Board Member Thadeo Z. Ouano, is crucial. If it holds in the 2013 elections, One Cebu is still very competitive there. In Mandaue City, the Ouano family is more than just a huge clan. They hold a big political stick. We cannot sneeze at their following.

I suspect that among the reasons why the congressman joined the president’s party at the earliest opportunity is to block the entry of Board Member Teddy. He probably saw that the sangguniang panlalawigan member could be his electoral adversary. The legislator’s donning the Liberal party colors insures his candidacy for re-election as the administration bet.

If, the board member decides to contest the congressional seat against Representative Quisumbing, it will not be walk in the park by the incumbent. If that should happen, Hon. Ouano cannot be a Liberal party candidate. In all probability, he can be with One Cebu. While the Ouanos are economically elite, an assurance of additional logistics by the Garcias can make him move in that direction.

Of course, this is a delicate issue considering that the daughter of Hon. Ouano, a Mandaue City councilor, is now allied with the city mayor who is himself a stalwart in the Liberal Party. In fact, observers also interpreted the presence of Board Member Ouano in Danao City on the day the His Excellency President Benigno Simeon C. Aquino III, Board Member Ouano went there as an indication that we was veering towards the party.

The second situation that observers are keenly looking at happens to be the recent forging of alliance between the Liberal Party and Bakud. To them, such a modus vivendi creates a vacuum for the Garcia’s in the fifth district. That is understandable because as they point out, it was in that district where Gov. Gwen garnered her biggest margin against her opponent in 2010.

But, we should not forget the fact that the Duranos then were a united lot. The case that was, is apparently no longer so. Their recent political wrangling, described as one with most bitter character, signified their disunity. Yes we must admit that the Danao City Vice Mayor Nito Durano commands the bigger slice of the city’s (and that of the fifth district’s) politics, but certainly the influence of his detractors will divide the once formidable united block. Such happenstance will cushion the impact of Liberal Party-Bakud treaty on One Cebu.

Still, despite these re-alignments, we must not overlook the fact that the Garcias have a combined stay of about 18 years as governor, dating back to Gov. Pablo Garcia. We know they are astute politicians, as we recognize their leadership skills. More importantly, all these years, they are visible even in he more remote parts of the province. During this extended stay at the Capitol, and their incessant visits to far flung places, they must have developed relations with more people than any newcomer could imagine, relations that can spell the difference between winning and losing.