Climate change goes to TOWNS

“Oo nga, lumalakas at dumadalas ang mga bagyo. Ano’ng magagawa namin kundi magdasal at umiwas? (Yes, we notice that typhoons are stronger and more frequent, but what can we do except pray and avoid it?)” This was the anxious question asked by a housewife as she braced herself for a Signal 3 howler. To a certain extent, the feeling that we are helpless against the pounding fury of nature is unpleasant but true. Is any intervention now too little, too late?

There are some skeptics in the global climate science community who claim that there is “strong evidence that a small group of scientists … were engaged in a conspiracy to provide a scientifically misleading assessment of the case for catastrophic global warming.” Other geophysicists believe that the erratic developments are simply part of the earth’s natural cycles and man’s behavior is of little consequence. Some US politicians are among the most prominent climate-change contrarians and have made the Obama administration’s attempts to limit greenhouse gases, an election issue.

Be that as it may, The Outstanding Women in the Nation’s Service (TOWNS) is not about to let Mother Nature have her way without an intercession. TOWNS’ science awardees, with likeminded partners, Ateneo de Manila University and Kaya Natin, mounted an information caravan designed to deliver reliable, significant and practical information to LGUs for better preparedness against calamities. Catherine Vistro-Yu, TOWNS president, said that the appalling death toll and damage caused by Typhoon Sendong provided the impetus for this crusade. It was also TOWNS’ way to honor Woman’s International Month and Earth Hour.

Topics covered the warming weather and its impact on sea level; typhoon frequency and freshwater supply; the dynamics of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides; and the importance of coastal habitats such as coral reefs. Among the experts were TOWNS awardees Alyssa Peleo-Alampay of the National Institute of Geological Sciences (NIGS, UP Diliman), Helen Yap and Laura David of the Marine Science Institute in UP Diliman. Scientist emerita of the Southeast Asian Fisheries and Development Center (SEAFDEC) and Pew fellow, Jurgenne Primavera, talked about mangrove ecology and restoration to protect against the impact of climate-related calamities.

Climate change journals compiled by the team of Cesar Villanoy, Laura David and others, document occurrences that create environmental havoc and calamity. Nature is evidently warning us of what’s coming. There is reason for concern. More important, we need to act now to mitigate, if not avert, more fatalities and damage from natural disasters. It promises to broaden the mind and the vocabulary too.

We all know that the Philippine Archipelago has more than 7,000 islands of different shapes and sizes. A big word to learn is bathymetry, the study of the depth of lake or ocean floors, the underwater equivalent of topography. Our bathymetry is complicated, due to narrow shelves, steep slopes, and deep basins connected by shallow sills. This plus seasonal monsoons and tidal and non-tidal currents affect ocean circulation.

Our dominant wind system is the Asian monsoon that blows NE between December to March and SE between June and October. During monsoon surges, winds that pass through complex topography create turbulence and induce the water to rise (upwelling) or ebb (downwelling).

The temperature of the ocean is called sea surface temperature (SST). This affects climate and weather significantly. Every 3-7 years, a wide swath of the Pacific Ocean near the equator warms by 2 to 3 degrees Celsius. The NASA website show downloadable global maps that tracks the warming, which is a hallmark of El Niño or La Niña, which determines rainfall patterns.

El Niño, Spanish for “Boy Child,” is a large-scale oceanographic/meteorological phenomenon that develops in the Pacific Ocean, which is associated with extreme climatic variability ranging from devastating rains and winds to drought. Warm surface water from the western equatorial Pacific Basin to the eastern equatorial Pacific region, along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador migrate to the Pacific Ocean. La Niña is the counterpart when the SST across the Pacific Ocean is lower than normal by 3-5 degrees Celsius. El Niño brings dry weather and even droughts, while La Niña causes excessive rains and floods.

According to PAGASA, El Niño occurs in the Pacific basin every two to nine years. It usually starts during December to February and lasts until the first half of the following year and may stay longer. At present though, La Niña started last December supposedly until February although the World Meteorological Center said it would continue till May.

The rising ocean temperature has led to the increased coral bleaching around the world. When water is too warm, corals will expel the algae (zooxanthellae) living in their tissues, causing the coral to turn completely white. This is called coral bleaching. Although it can survive, this is cause for alarm.

Coral reefs and other coastal ecosystems such as seagrasses and mangroves provide protection against the devastating effects of strong waves associated with tsunamis and storms. With the warming climate the role of these ecosystems is more critical than ever.

According to Natural Science columnist, Jaymi Heimbuch, “As much as 95 percent of the corals in the Philippines have suffered bleaching after the 2009-2010 El Niño event that boosted the temperatures in the Indian Ocean and waters off Southeast Asia during the beginning of this year. But such a massive bleaching as this in the Philippines is a rare and particularly distressing news.”

Mongabay.com reports, “The bleaching has been observed at many other sites around the Philippines featuring mass mortality of corals including the coral triangle outside the Philippines. This environmental catastrophe will probably be considered the most damaging bleaching event ever recorded in the Philippines, surpassing the big one of 1998. If the algae doesn’t grow back on the corals, they will die completely and the loss of other species that depend on healthy corals will quickly be felt. Still, even while the corals are trying to recover, the impact is felt in the overall health of reef ecosystems. Prior to this year’s bleaching, it was estimated that about 85 percent of the reefs have been damaged or destroyed in the Philippines, now the current estimate is likely to be close to 95 percent.”

For coral reef ecosystems to remain sustainable, stressors that are within human control such as illegal and destructive blast and poison fishing methods, pollution and siltation must be eliminated.

Coral reefs help dampen wave energy. A damaged reef will be more vulnerable to wave action. As experienced during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, destruction was generally greater on degraded, carbonate reefs. Seawalls built on shorelines behind them can make them last longer. Where resources allow, it is beneficial to combine seawalls with reef restoration and enforcement effort. The importance of corals to fisheries and tourism are the other compelling reasons why they must be protected.

Admittedly, these are topics that can give the non-scientific person a nosebleed. Stuff that we wouldn’t ordinarily bother with unless there was a gun pointed at our heads. Well…there is. The UN has identified the Philippines as one of the most calamity-prone countries in the world. The wrath of the Environment has become so intense, our choice is either to get educated so we can prepare better. Or surrender.

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