Mirrors

We are quickly rushing headlong into a hall of mirrors with all this talk about coup conspiracies afoot.

In that hall of mirrors, we quickly lose perspective as well as the ability to distinguish between fact and fear. In that hall, every wild hypothesis becomes allegation, every drunken pundit becomes a credible source. Soon after, every man in uniform becomes a suspect.

Just last week, believe it or not, there was absolutely no talk of any coup conspiracy afoot. There was not a rustle in the leaves foretelling a gust of ill wind. The matter was simply unthinkable and the political ground for it infertile.

The choir we now see, freely speculating on the possibility of a coup attempt, was quiet. It was simply not fashionable to dwell on the topic. Only those who ingratiated themselves with the wielders of power by whispering scenarios of insidious plots onto the king’s ear tried to make a sustainable cottage industry out of forcibly imagining conspiracies into existence. There was personal political profit to be made out of doing that.

The silence of this choir was broken last week when the President, speaking before his guards, ever so casually spoke of threats to his life. In a matter of hours, especially after an outspoken retired archbishop gave his own unique spin on the matter, panderers began volunteering their respective conspiracy theories to give meat to the President’s anxiety.

Retired Archbishop Oscar Cruz got things rolling by laughing off the President’s words, saying that assassination plots are normally hatched against competent — not incompetent — leaders. In a word, he was saying that nobody shoots the village idiot.

That was provocative to be sure. Soon enough, the President’s supporters rallied around their leader, not by arguing his competence but by offering proof of plots.

Among the first of the choir to arrive was Sen. Antonio Trillanes. He claims to have furnished the President confidential information about recruitment going in the armed forces for some sort of coup effort. The effort is animated by the anticommunist bogey — in this case, the proposition that this administration has fallen under the influence of the Left.

Trillanes, however, offers nothing in terms of hard facts. Radio commentators quickly jumped on the senator for injecting something akin to a showbiz blind item. The community of retired generals, the usual suspects whenever talk of coup conspiracies break out like an epidemic of summer measles, protested the freshman senator’s insinuation of their involvement. They now ask the senator to name names.

To be fair, the former soldier now politician must have more than the usual access to information regarding movements in the military. He gained prominence after two messy military maneuvers at the Oakwood and then at the Peninsula. He may not be an authority on mounting successful coup strategies but no one doubts his credentials for military maneuvers in venues that assure access to fine dining.

Trillanes’ claims about recruitment in the ranks were subsequently seconded by retired general, now congressman, Rodolfo Biazon. The former Marine commander played a key role in suppressing coup attempts mounted against the presidency of Corazon Aquino.

Like Trillanes, Biazon claims the coup conspiracy is centered around a group of retired generals. I am nearly sure the congressman draws his information from conversations held in a place aptly called The Last Watering Hole, where old soldiers go to revive their glory days.

The historical record, however, shows none of the coups that matured began from this watering hole where retired soldiers talk bravely but walk feebly. They were all hatched by middle ranking officers who had actual control of the best fighting units. Anything launched from The Last Watering Hole cannot be too serious.

Subsequently, there is now talk that a vital meeting between retired and active military officers happened somewhere in Batangas. The choice of that province reeks of much political intrigue. It is not just the home province of the besieged Chief Justice. It is also the home province of the current Vice President — the direct constitutional beneficiary of any pre-termination of Aquino’s term in office.

Should there be any insinuation the imagined coup conspiracy is led by the Chief Justice, this will surely be a first. Never, anywhere in the world, was there a coup mounted from the highest tribunal. It is truly more fun in the Philippines.

On the other hand, should there be any insinuation that the Vice President has a hand in this imagined coup conspiracy, this will be an open invitation to a premature outbreak in factional fighting. It will invite speculation of every sort, intrigue of every variety, unsettling the precarious political configuration in place.

It is nearly sure Vice President Binay will soon announce a powerful senatorial ticket to challenge the Liberal Party line-up. It is also nearly sure there are enough powerbrokers at the Palace keen on containing Binay early enough. If Binay is implicated in the brewing conspiracy theories now being peddled, that could precipitate premature political hostilities no one is ready to indulge in.

Palace spokesmen professed no interest in looking more deeply at Trillanes’ allegations. They are, in every corner, trying to snuff out further speculation about coup conspiracies — even if the initial trigger for speculation of this sort emanated from the President’s mouth.

It is going to the awkward for the Palace to be fanning public speculation about a coup conspiracy in play. There are enough people earnestly hoping for pre-termination.

The greater likelihood, however, is that this sort of idle scenario-building could trip off unwanted factional struggles from within the tenuous coalition in power.