Aquino up for judgment as well

The year 2012 promises to be a very interesting year for the Philippines because of the political spectacles already lined up. There is the impending impeachment trial of Chief Justice Renato Corona, and the numerous charges filed against former president Gloria Arroyo.

I purposely mentioned the two cases in that order because it is the Corona trial by the Senate that will prove more interesting to watch. It is a relatively new twist to the penchant of Filipinos to turn anything into a fad. And it involves more personalities.

Senators will sit as judges at the trial, which is set to begin January 16. Some of the senators are up for reelection next year, so the trial serves as a propitious opportunity for them to preen and pirouette before the public.

Others have set their eyes much farther ahead. The impeachment trial could not have come at a better time for their presidential ambitions in 2016 — it is close enough for their gems of wisdom to be remembered, yet far off enough for any gaffes to be relatively forgotten.

Still others may simply want to be part of history, and be on the right side of it. They hope their conduct during the trial will make for the glowing testaments they expect to attach to their names at the end of their careers.

As to the cases against Arroyo, public interest that should have naturally attached to them as a result of their being against a former president has long been sapped by their constant bombardment before the public, even long before any cases have been filed.

The cases have become nothing more than a formality. Arroyo has long been convicted before the bar of public opinion. The outcome of her cases has long been predetermined in the public eye, whichever way it may go.

If she gets off the hook, which is unlikely despite the clear lack of evidence against her, people will always look at it as just another political accommodation in a country whose politics allow anything to happen, no matter how surprising and improbable.

If she gets convicted, only the headlines will scream it. The excitement has long dissipated. If this had been a mystery suspense movie, the enemies of Arroyo privileged to see the premiere showing have long told everyone queued up outside that it was the butler who did it.

But the most interesting thing to watch out for this year, but which I purposely did not mention at the outset along with the Corona and Arroyo cases (for no other reason that plain mischievousness) is how these very two cases will affect the presidency of Noynoy Aquino.

Aquino has placed all his eggs on one political basket — going after Arroyo and everyone associated with her. Even his economic plans have been dangerously tied to politics: “Walang mahirap kung walang kurap,” I think is how he said it.

Thus, with everything on the line this year, I believe Aquino has placed himself for judgment as well. If everything goes well and Aquino gets the convictions he wants, then his presidency will be strengthened considerably despite his own inherent personal weaknesses.

But if everything goes haywire with his desires, then the Aquino presidency could spin out of control because I do not think he has put in provisions in other areas to mop up the political injuries he could suffer.

I think by being too focused on one thing, Aquino has painted himself into a corner. And with his presidency not even half over, he risks becoming a lame duck too early, which is very dangerous because he could be ripe for the picking.

If Aquino gets too weakened, and with no provisions for safety nets invested anywhere else, I shudder to think of what might happen to this country, especially at this time when global circumstances are not very reassuring for weak nations such as ours.