Warmongers vs Peaceniks

The way I see it, the Spratly issue is better understood as about differences on how to tackle territorial disputes. Claimants who are also members of Asean are the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei. China has a historical claim to the South China Sea that embraces the islands belongs to the Asean plus 3.

The method in question is whether to shoot first before you discuss and negotiate or discuss and negotiate until a solution is reached. The Chinese prefer to stay on the negotiating table while the Philippines (perhaps with the prodding of outside interests) wants ownership resolved on the disputed islands before any discussion on ownership.

But the never-can-pleased congressman Walden Bello from Akbayan (said to be a party list group with links to the NPA) has managed to speak on both sides of the mouth. Having made the provocative visit to Pag-asa island to heighten the tension, he does not hesitate to say that he and the other lawmaker who went on the trip “come in peace and support a diplomatic solution.” What?!? Unfortunately, such provocation is not only unnecessary but also dangerous. I suppose Cong. Bello does not really mind if millions of Filipinos suffer from a war. And to think that his party Akbayan claims to speak for the masses.

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Even before before the Asean regional forum in Bali there were Filipino officials who looked to the body to act as one against China’s claim. It shows little understanding of the conflict. First, not all the members of Asean are claimants and even among the claimants they have overlapping claims that can only be threshed out by bilateral negotiations with China and among themselves.

The Spratlys problem was in the forum’s agenda but its conclusion was not to the warmongers’ liking. A compromise was reached and accepted by both Asean and the Chinese. One story called the Asean solution a tweak. Tweak or not, Asean composes highly intelligent Asians with the ability to weave through a complicated issue. China’s Assistant Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin said the Bali document was “an important milestone document on the cooperation among China and Asean countries.”

Vietnam, lately in the news for hostile statements towards China, seemed to have accepted the regional decision. “Through fruitful and constructive discussions and dialogue, we have been able to arrive, at our level, at an agreement on the draft guidelines,” said Pham Quang Vinh, Vietnam’s top senior foreign ministry official.

A diplomatic source said the breakthrough came after Asean ministers agreed to remove a paragraph that referred to the regional meeting as an act of the whole for a common position against China.

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Sometimes we get more useful information from individuals in social networking. My FB friend, Veritas Alethia, an educator who studied at the Far Eastern University wrote on a passage she read from Bill Emmott’s Rivals. She cited this source because it gives light on how China has been resolving border disputes. (It somehow supports Mrs. Pedrosa’s observation that China is consistent with its policy in these issues.)

“An analysis by M. Taylor Fravel of the MIT in 2005 showed that of the 16 land frontier disputes China has had with its neighbors since 1949, it has attempted compromises in all of them and has succeeded in resolving 14. . . . the two unresolved disputes are with Bhutan, and the one already outlined with India.

Taylor Fravel believes that India has little reason to worry about the alleged Chinese incursions near Mount Gya and that an increased troop density and the resultant increase in problems do not presage an aggressive move by China.”

Dr. Fravel is described as a leading expert on China’s border problems. Among other things he is a member of the Security Studies Program at MIT, studies international relations, focusing on international security, China and East Asia.

He has written a book on China’s border disputes, Strong Borders, Secure Nation: Cooperation and Conflict in China’s Territorial Disputes that gives a background to understand China’s position on the Spratlys.

In an interview with rediff.com’s P Rajendran, Dr. Fravel argues that “China has beefed up border security and associated infrastructure along all of its borders not just the one with India, although it has settled all its land border disputes, except those with India and Bhutan. He also suggests that India has tried to make most of the concessions that China was willing to offer, thus influencing the intensity of the conflict.”

Using Dr. Fravel’s insights leads to an understanding of China’s behavior on the Spratly issue. Like many who want a peaceful settlement he believes that “in territorial disputes both sides need to sit down and reach a mature compromise on the matter.”

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Another commentary to be heeded is FVR’s Pax Asia-Pacifica. He accepts that Chinese media reports is not entirely innocent for the acrimony between the Philippines and China. He denies that “the heightened “unfriendliness” in the region has allegedly arisen from “bad rumors and speculations” on the part only of Filipino commentators.

He adds that war, of course, is in no one’s interest. Nevertheless he maintains that the more important concern to be addressed is for the governments of both countries to recognize the need to maintain the stability and cooperation that have made East Asia the world’s fastest growing region.

“Now is the time for China, the Philippines, Vietnam, other claimants, and the US to take action to begin to diminish these tensions. What is needed, above all, is a covenant among the leaders of the Asia/Pacific region that will make peaceful dispute resolution binding on all stakeholders, big or small. Only such a pledge can provide the type of certainty that investors — any investors — will need if the Spratly resources are to be developed.

The world needs peace, countries deserve development, and people want cooperation . . . China will always be a good neighbor, good friend, and good partner of other Asian countries.”

He has proposed to Asean leaders that the Spratlys be demilitarized as a first step toward building trust. The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and associated international commitments must become the basis for productive dialogues leading to binding covenants. Joint exploration and development of the resources within and beneath the archipelago could then begin.

“More broadly, the urgent task for Asian statesmen over the next five to 10 years will be to replace the region’s Pax Americana, which has guaranteed regional stability for decades, with a more comprehensive Pax Asia-Pacifica that is built on inclusiveness and burden-sharing,” he said.