Uneasy is the peace over Spratlys - I

On the matter of the Spratlys group of islands in the South China Sea, which is now actively eyed by mainland China vis-à-vis the longtime claim of the Philippines, et al, the situation has become very delicate and fraught with perilous projections.

 It appears that now powerful China in economy and armament wants all islands and islets in the South China Sea. It has now the greed to disregard the Philippines’ stakes over the Kalayaan Islands’ Reed Bank – still part of the Spratlys group – where the Philippine flag flies. China also wards off the claims of Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Taiwan. It seems the basic reason is the location in the South China Sea, nothing else, despite China is some 400 miles away compared to the Philippines’ 80 miles from Palawan.

 So aggressive is Beijing that should the Philippines insist on its external sovereignty over Spratlys, China will consider it as an act of aggression or an act of war. And that’s what the Philippines is now facing, to be aggressive over its ownership, no matter what happens, or to cower in surrender without putting up any fight if only to save face. Some DFA and military personnel are getting gung ho with their aggressive talks against some provocative statements from the Chinese resulting in abrasive repartee that is inimical that exacerbates the situation.

 And that’s the quandary President Noynoy is confronted with… Meantime the nation is not equally divided. Most are practical of not going into war with China, which has modern armaments, many soldiers, planes, helicopters, and battleships, while the Philippine military suffers shortage of everything. During the time of President Fidel Ramos, he wanted to modernize the armed forces by selling the prime land occupied by Fort McKinley in Rizal, and later renamed as Fort Andres Bonifacio. But where are the tremendous funds from that sale? And so, the AFP remains decrepit even against local banditry and the NPA for years now.

 Most Filipinos are compelled to adopt peaceful means, what with the U.S.A. which has a mutual defense treaty to help each other in case of war, has now declared to help settle the dispute through diplomatic means. However, if the dispute ripens into war, the U.S. will not wage war against China over the Spratlys.

 Another factor is the impact on Philippine economy. On import-export relations with China, the 2010 total worth was $27.7 billion. The Philippine export was $16.2 billion while the import amounted to $11.5 billion, or a favorable balance of trade of $4.7 billion for the Philippines. On the OFWs working in China whose earnings are sent home, number about 200,000. If the trade tie-up is cut off or should there be war with China, where would the Philippines compensate for the loss of $4.7 billion and the employment of 200,000?

 Moreover, the Philippines depends mostly on Chinese goods and wares, which are much cheaper than local sources and the products of other exporting countries. Although far from the exaggerated “from needles to battleships” boast of then Lloyds of London, it’s a stark reality that Filipinos are overly dependent on much cheaper imports from Beijing.

  In fact, even Uncle Sam’s very rich and powerful U.S.A. has long been dependent on China. Believe it or not, U.S.A. is the number one debtor of China since out of America’s total debts of over $14 trillion, $4.116 trillion is owed to China, and still increasing. On the import-export side in billions yearly, perhaps now in trillions, America enjoys an enormous favorable balance of trade. While America is supposedly very affluent in industry and economy, it pales in comparison with China’s worldwide reach. Admittedly in present military armaments and in scientific and technological power and influence, China may be presently not as strong as America, nonetheless, it need not go to war with Uncle Sam. The vast upper hand of China in industry and economy is almost unquantifiable that if radically severed, say, in the event of war, America’s economy and industry would perhaps collapse overnight.

(To be continued)