Will they or not?

As the word war heats up between the Philippines and China over the now household name Spratlys, the question always asked is if the US will help us in case the proverbial you-know-what hits the fan. China has stepped up its presence over the disputed islands, including those already being claimed by the Philippines and other countries like Vietnam and Taiwan by sending larger patrol boats, installing buoys, building structures and even sending aircraft sorties over the area. A clear case of a rich, big bully starting to intimidate the people around him! Indeed, there have been several incidents of harassment already by Chinese patrol boats on legitimate Philippine research vessels.

Rhetoric as to how to respond have ranged from hollow bamboo saber-rattling to full-blown trade boycotts. The latter has been frowned upon by government and the business sector, saying that severe repercussions may ensue since China is one of the country’s biggest traders. A trade boycott may be an emotional response to all this, according to businessmen. So we really are in a quandary as to how to respond or react with the Spratly issue with China. We claim sovereignty over certain islands in the Spratlys, but we don’t want to offend China “that much” that we lose an enormous trading partner. We raise our fists in defiance but I really wonder where all those fists will go if the shooting starts.

So will they or not? Statements have already been made that the US will not involve itself in the ongoing row over the Spratlys. But they will conduct military exercises with the AFP soon. And the Philippines and the US do have a Mutual Defense Treaty that covers security and sovereignty. Lately, US Ambassador Harry Thomas has assured that the US will support the country in “all subjects”, including the South China Sea and the Spratly Islands. Of course, a diplomat has to be diplomatic. Always.

With assurances from Amb. Thomas, can we go back to raising our fists, or rattling our bamboo sabers? I still believe that bringing the whole issue to an international arbitration would be best. But as history has shown us, China has proven difficult to bring to any negotiation. That’s just the nature of the beast. Or in this case, the bully.