How will P-Noy play the China card?

A high-caliber group of foreign policy advisers from Beijing in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) of China completed over the weekend their official mission in Manila as the last itinerary of their three-nation visit. This team of Foreign Policy Advisory Group (FPAG) of the Ministry first went to South Korea and then to Indonesia. The FPAG, established on Oct. 14, 2008, is a think-tank organization at the MOFA that provides analysis of, and judgment about the international situation, policy advice and pronouncement concerning China’s diplomacy.

To date, it has 31 members, including former senior officials of the MOFA, former ambassadors at the vice ministerial level and well-known Chinese scholars. Since its establishment, the FPAG has grown into a highly competent think-tank on foreign affairs and provided important intellectual support for foreign policy decision-making at the MOFA. It has since then been recognized as a very influential body that has attracted keen interest at home and abroad.

The three-man delegation from the FPAG that came here was led by Xu Dunxin, former vice minister of MOFA and who once served as ambassador of China to Japan. He was accompanied by fellow FPAG members, Zhou Xiaopei, former ambassador to Ukraine, Poland and Kazakhstan, and Pan Zhanlin, former ambassador to Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, Yugoslavia and Israel.

The FPAG mission flew here for a series of consultation and dialogues with Chinese embassy officials in Manila as well as with top officials of the Department of Foreign Affairs headed by Secretary Alberto del Rosario. But before they paid their call to the DFA, the mission gave us the honor to hold a free-wheeling discussion of China-Philippine relations with the members of the Tuesday Club breakfast gathering at the EDSA Shangri-La Hotel last week.

Actually, the FPAG mission officials were invited to speak before the Tuesday Club by former Philippine special envoy to China, Carlos Chan, chairman of his family-owned Liwayway Marketing Corp., the flagship company that manufactures the Oishi snackfood products. They spoke to us through Sun Yi, official spokesman of the Chinese embassy who acted as the group’s interpreter. Several other high-ranking Chinese embassy officials accompanied the FPAG at the same breakfast gathering.

Speaking for the mission, Xu discussed with us in broad terms what he described as “sensitive issue” over the territorial dispute between the Philippines and China, including other claimant countries, over the Spratlys chain of islands in the South China Sea. Without getting into the core of dispute on sovereignty, Xu reiterated the official pronouncements from Chinese President Hu Jintao that China won’t resort to non-peaceful means to resolve this issue.

Xu admitted that the continuing negotiations for a peaceful settlement of this issue takes time before it can be resolved to the satisfaction of everyone concerned. In fact, Xu conceded, its resolution may not come even during his lifetime. But, he stressed, negotiations also take a lot of patience and mutual trust.

For the meantime, the Philippines, China, Vietnam, Taiwan and other country claimants of atolls, reefs and islets in the South China Sea have been observing a Code of Conduct. So far, this has been keeping the peace and stability around the disputed South China Sea regarded as a potential flashpoint in this part of the world.

Xu noted, though, that the progress made by the tri-party cooperation on joint seismic exploration and survey among China, the Philippines and Vietnam around the disputed areas. He, however, failed to mention China’s explanation on the recent incident this year involving alleged “harassment” by two Chinese naval vessels of the Philippine civilian research vessel on a seismic exploration at the Reed Bank.

The incident took place early last month around Pag-asa — the biggest island occupied by the Philippines in the Spratlys — and about 250 kms. away from Palawan. The Philippine government, through the DFA, could only lodge a diplomatic protest over the incident.

While such incidents erupt, Xu stressed China does not look with favor on suggestions to include the South China Sea dispute as an agenda of discussion with the rest of the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean).

By the way, President Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III is set to participate on his second Asean Leaders’ summit on May 6-9. It will be held in Jakarta, Indonesia.

While China has established its relations with Asean as a group, Xu clarified non-claimant countries on the South China Sea territorial dispute are “outsiders” to this issue. Only the Philippines and Vietnam are members of the 10-member states in the Asean. While China is recognized as a world power, both in terms of its military and its economic might, Xu reassured us Beijing would not impose its decision on smaller countries like the Philippines.

Overall, Xu expressed satisfaction the friendship between the Philippines and China has become the solid foundation of the bilateral relations of the two countries. Thus, he said, the friendly ties are kept strong despite irritants that break out every now and then between the two nations.

These were in reference to the most recent irritants that include the execution in China last month of the three convicted Filipino drug mules and last year’s Luneta bus hostage taking incident where eight Chinese from Hong Kong were killed in the botched police rescue attempt.

There is also the issue of much-delayed $503 million North Rail project with China’s National Railway Corp. The Aquino administration decided to place this project on hold amid corruption issues and called for a review of the contract entered into by the previous administration of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. This came after the scandal-rocked $329 million national broadband network (NBN) contract with ZTE Corp. of China was earlier cancelled during Arroyo’s time.

While these issues hang on a balance, President Aquino is keeping on hold also his planned state visit to China this year. Xu cited immediate past Presidents of the Philippines have made official visits to China more than once.

By way of anecdote, Xu told us he was the MOFA official who attended to former President Corazon Aquino, P-Noy’s late mother, during her state visit in Beijing 20 years ago.