A desert storm

Undoubtedly what is happening in Libya is part of the social unrest cum popular anti-government protests that have swept US-backed entrenched autocratic regimes in the Middle East and North Africa since early January — a veritable “First Quarter Storm” in that Arab-African region.

The decades-long presidents of Tunisia and Egypt were ousted through unarmed uprisings in January and February. The Jordanian king was impelled to reorganize his government in February. The rulers of Yemen and Bahrain have been under siege with demands for democratic reforms. Relatively less extensive and vehement protests have begun in Saudi Arabia.

 Saudi Arabia has dispatched troops into Bahrain to support King Hamed ibn Isa Khalifa, without any critical comment from the US. Khalifa has declared martial law and ordered his armed forces to quell the unarmed Shiite Muslim protesters. There are no signs that the Shiites, Bahrain’s aggrieved majority population, are resorting to arms.

But in Libya — not a US ally — the political protest has burgeoned into a civil war, with the protesters having taken up arms. Col. Muammar Gadhafi, who has led Libya for 42 years, retains control over Tripoli, the nation’s capital and its most populous city, while the rebel forces have set up a provisional government in the eastern city of Benghazi.

With much of the Libyan armed forces at his command, Gadhafi, as conceded by both the rebels and the US intelligence chief, can easily prevail, absent foreign military intervention on the rebels’ side.

Events on the ground validate this assessment.

 Thus calls for intervention, basically through a no-fly zone (NFZ) move to prevent Gadhafi from using his air power against the rebels, have been raised by the rebels and by France (which has recognized the rebels’ provisional government) and Britain, among others. But intense debate over this issue rages within the United Nations, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and within the United States, the prime power player in the Middle East.

Two practical factors count against a NFZ. First, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates opposes NFZ because it entails attacking Gadhafi’s air defenses before imposing it. If the US does that, Gates warns, it will suck America into a third prolonged war, as it has been mired in for 10 years now in Afghanistan and Iraq. A defense secretary who endorses no-fly-zone, he adds, “should have his head examined.”

Second, NATO leaders say it will take time to carry it out. Given the fast pace of the war, with Gadhafi’s forces pushing back the rebels, he may have overwhelmed his opponents before NFZ can be implemented.

Gates may not only be worried over the high cost to the US of a third war front, but also because a war against Libya will likely invite strong reactions from African and Latin American nations whose leaders and revolutionary movements Gadhafi had aided in their struggles.

Foremost of these countries and movements is South Africa (African National Congress), whose revered leader and living hero, Nelson Mandela, has acknowledged Gadhafi’s significant support in defeating the apartheid system. The others include Namibia (SWAPO), Angola (MPLA), Western Sahara’s Polisario, and Nicaragua (Sandinistas).

In 1982, Gadhafi initiated the organization of the World Mathaba in Libya. It brought together revolutionaries and freedom fighters from all over the world, including the Philippines, to share knowledge and experiences in their struggles.

In 2002, I was among the few Filipinos invited to the World Mathaba gathering in Libya. So numerous were the leaders present, milling around Gadhafi, that it was impossible to personally greet and talk to most of them during the four days of the conference.

But what deeply impressed me then was the progress that Libya, through Gadhafi’s nationalization of the oil industry and the banks, had achieved in upgrading the lives of the people. Remarkable, too, was how Libya successfully tapped not only oil but fresh water from beneath the earth to transform arid desert into productive agricultural lands. I saw how the process worked.

I wonder what went wrong since then. Has Gadhafi’s “people’s committees” governance system failed? Whatever may have been Gadhafi’s errors or shortcomings that spurred the uprisings in Benghazi and other cities, social or economic deprivation, as in Tunisia and Egypt, can’t be among them. The UN Human Development Index for Africa has rated Libya highest in life expectancy and living standard, with high education, health, and cultural levels. 

Back to the civil war. It’s strange that nobody of consequence is pressing UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon to initiate diplomatic mediation to prevent further escalation of the war.

A good, but belated, move was the March 11 decision of the African Union, the organization of African states, to send negotiators to both Gadhafi and the rebel leadership and strive for a peaceable settlement. This initiative starkly contrasts with the Arab League’s suspension of Libya’s membership in the organization and urging the UN Security Council to impose a no-fly-zone.

Alas, as I finished writing this yesterday, the Security Council, with Russia, China and Germany abstaining, approved the French-UK-sponsored resolution authorizing a no-fly-zone, including air strikes on Gadhafi’s ground forces.