Revolution

There is a specter haunting all of Arabia. It is the specter of young people, wielding laptops, demanding accountable government.

A few weeks ago, on a far corner of the Arab world, Tunisians took to the streets demanding an end to tyranny and the dismantling of the regime that has been largely tolerated by the rest of the world for decades. It was tolerated because nobody really cared about Tunisia, with only 8 million people and no oil.

Then, from a few small marches protesting rising food prices, the uprising began to take an incredible life of its own. It was spontaneous, participated in by people who never enjoyed democratic rule, only cruel repression by a ruling faction that never thought itself accountable to the man on the street.

The army was sent in. As always, faced with a democratic horde filling the streets, the soldiers found it an easier choice to turn their guns on the tyrant rather than shoot unarmed civilians demanding bread and rights.

Before the rest of the world could figure out what was going on in Tunisia, the regime was dismantled. The people refused to accept even a holdover government manned by members of the old ruling party. A tenuous process of democratic discovery is now underway.

In the days that followed the uprising in Tunisia, protest marches broke out in Algeria, Jordan and even Yemen. There is something afoot, something no one really bothered to anticipate too seriously.

Then, since the middle of last week, protest marches were held in major Egyptian cities. They grew larger by the day, gaining courage and clarity as it went along. By Friday, the message of the protestors crystallized dramatically. They wanted Hosni Mubarak, who ruled Egypt for 30 years and who planned to install his son as successor, out. They wanted Mubarak out now.

Initially, the police responded to the marches with habitual barbarity. They beat up protestors, hauled them to jail to be tortured and shot a few dead in the streets.

Police brutality failed to turn back the protests. It only escalated the violence. Soon police vehicles and government buildings were set ablaze.

Mubarak tried to take away the wind from the protests by dissolving his government but retaining himself in power. He aggravated things by subsequently appointing his intelligence chief as his deputy. More and more people poured into the streets.

Analysts were quick to point out the source of Mubarak’s apparent stupidity. Egypt is a country with two societies. The rich and powerful lived in a world detached from the lives of the poor. They do not fully understand the energy that is driving the protests.

All in all, what is happening in the major cities of Egypt should resemble classic uprisings of the two previous centuries. But there are many things different in what is happening here.

Quite remarkably, when the street marches began to escalate, the Mubarak regime responded by shutting down the internet and mobile phone services. In the uprisings of yore, besieged governments usually shut down the papers, then the broadcast facilities. In a word, they throttled the old media; here they tried to suppress the new.

But it is far easier to shut down the centralized systems of the old media than to quash decentralized digital communications. Mubarak tried anyway, even as this meant crippling his own regime’s command and control, eventually disabling the whole economy. He tried to blind the protestors and ended up blinding his own government.

The uprising in progress in Egypt now has no leaders, not even organized parties and ideological groups. It is an uprising relying heavily on Tweeter and Facebook, propelled by common sentiment and not by demagogues.

Mubarak, the tyrant, tried closing down his entire country, the better to keep out the world’s prying eyes as he set out to do what he had to do. The police first tried to confiscate the cameras of tourists and then harassed journalists, to little avail. He did control the government channels, but his people were on cable and were talking to the world and listening to international public opinion.

While this uprising is in progress, there are difficult questions to be asked. The weakness of spontaneous movements is that they offer no plan. There is no one face associated with this uprising, not one single group claiming responsibility for the course of events. What will the Mubarak regime be replaced with, in the event it finally crumbles.

The world might be responding favorably to this uprising at the emotional level. But governments tend to react more rationally.

As the protests gained momentum, the Egyptian stock exchange shed over 16 percent in a day. The market was shut down after that.

Washington, Tel Aviv and Jeddah agree on one thing: they are more comfortable with Mubarak. The US delivers over $1.3 billion in aid to Egypt. Israel sees Mubarak as a reliable ally in the world’s most volatile region. The Saudis fear that an uprising in Egypt will have a domino effect on neighboring countries, especially theirs.

Notwithstanding the absence of a clear path of transition, the uprising is progressing at its own pace. A line has been crossed here. Egyptians believe this opportunity to displace a hated regime might not come again in a long while.

Meanwhile, as all parties figure out an exit, Egyptian society is in chaos. Neighborhoods have taken to organizing militias to protect their property as the police disappeared from sight. The army, possibly the only organized institution still functioning, is sorting out its options.

Mubarak, of course, will continue to resist any proposition to cut and cut cleanly.