The bigger scare

On the day that Australia warned of a fresh terror threat in the Philippines including Metro Manila, the stock market was up on positive economic news and the peso strengthened to a high that worried exporters and overseas workers.

The other day, when Americans, Canadians and Kiwis added their voices to the terror warnings, and until yesterday the market uptrend continued. And it looks likely to be sustained in the coming months amid optimism resulting from the change of administration in this country.

Tourism chief Alberto Lim’s confidence in the resilience of the country’s tourism industry amid the heightened terror threat is not misplaced. Even if the intelligence report — apparently the same one shared among the governments that issued or revised their travel advisories — pointed to foreigners and the places they frequent as the prime targets.

The terror threat, after all, is global, with the highest threat level in al-Qaeda’s top target, the United States. Security analysts have also noted that sustained operations have diffused the threat, with Osama bin Laden no longer exerting central control over a global network. Al-Qaeda may still provide financing and logistics for major operations, and its camps continue to train young jihadis for the ways of violence. But in many areas, Bin Laden merely serves as inspiration for localized Islamist movements acting on local resentments.

Across Western Europe security forces are confronting terror plots, but you don’t see tourists scrapping trips to Paris because the Eiffel Tower might be blown up.

There are terror threats — the latest by parcel bombs — not just in New York or Manila but everywhere. Since the 9/11 attacks, the world has grown used to stringent security measures at every step of international travel.

What reassures travelers is seeing governments dealing decisively with the threat. Terror plots in other countries are foiled, with the plotters arrested. Weapons, explosives and other bomb-making equipment are confiscated, and tight controls imposed against their proliferation.

This is where the Philippines can slip in perceptions of public safety, with the perceptions reinforced in the botched handling of the Aug. 23 hostage incident in Rizal Park.

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The Brits, used to security threats long posed by Irish Republican militants, seemed the least perturbed by the latest intel on the Philippines, emphasizing that they did not raise their alert level or include Metro Manila specifically as a potential target. Tourism chief Lim can expect British visitors to push through with travel plans to the Philippines.

What Bertie still cannot count on is the resumption in the near future of visits from residents of Hong Kong. The Chinese administrative region has not revised its ban on travel to the Philippines following the deaths of eight of its residents in the Aug. 23 hostage fiasco.

P-Noy’s review of the recommendations of the committee he formed to investigate the bungled rescue did not improve the mood in Hong Kong. The review was the main story of the South China Morning Post in its Oct. 12 issue, with the headline: “Aquino says he won’t pursue criminal charges.” On page 3, featuring a large photo of P-Noy, were the recommendations of the incident investigation and review committee (IIRC), juxtaposed against the President’s actions as a result of the review.

The IIRC, we were told the other day, is set to embark on phase two of its work, which is to come up with recommendations for institutional reforms that would prevent a repeat of the tragedy and improve the country’s response to hostage incidents.

Filipinos, notorious for short memories, aren’t expected to follow the new IIRC proceedings closely. But Beijing will be more interested in it than in any terror warning in Manila.

Unlike Hong Kong, China did not ban its citizens from traveling to the Philippines because of the hostage mess, and there were no reports of canceled tours from the mainland.

The Chinese expressed appreciation for the IIRC’s work and assistance given by the Philippine government to the hostages and their relatives. Hong Kong reportedly wanted to demand the head of any ranking Philippine official but was advised by China, which handles foreign affairs and defense for Hong Kong, that one shouldn’t tell a sovereign country what to do.

China’s top diplomat in Manila, Liu Jianchao, helped blunt what P-Noy described as the “insulting” attitude of Hong Kong officials.

But the Chinese look underwhelmed by the results of the review. The Philippine delegation to Beijing led by Vice President Jejomar Binay and Foreign Secretary Alberto Romulo is in limbo, with the Chinese ostensibly still trying to find an appropriate date for the visit.

I asked Ambassador Liu what they meant in their hope that the Philippines would “address the related issues concerning the incident in an earnest and appropriate manner,” as his embassy’s spokesman said.

They just wanted to feel reassured, Liu told me, that efforts were being made to keep foreign visitors safe in this country.

So far what we’ve seen are police drills and displays of equipment and firepower. Everything is always executed perfectly during practice. There is nothing wrong with this if practice truly makes perfect, but it was clearly not the case with the Manila Police District’s Special Weapons and Tactics team.

P-Noy was reportedly particularly interested in setting up an elite force patterned after the British Special Air Service or SAS, the Special Force regiment of the British Army. But the idea has been shot down, together with the setting up of a composite military and police unit, reportedly because the two services have different types of skills and training.

We can’t expect much change from the Office of the Ombudsman, which insists it did not err in dealing with hostage taker Rolando Mendoza, whose brother is the only one facing a criminal indictment in connection with the incident.

We don’t know if local crisis management teams are being organized, with a clear command structure and coordination in case of an emergency.

Coordination seemed to be lacking again yesterday, with the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) saying yesterday that Manila had not asked for a downgrade of the terror alerts and Malacañang saying the opposite.

That was one faction at the Palace talking. Perhaps another faction would back the DFA’s version. The lack of coordination can be scarier than a terror alert.