Fury

Hell hath no fury than P-Noy suffering through a blackout, after weather forecasters failed to predict that typhoon “Basyang” would change course and hit Metro Manila in mid-July.

That mistake proved costly for meteorologist Prisco Nilo, who as a result lost his job as head of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

Maybe it was just our imagination, but with typhoon “Juan,” PAGASA weathermen seemed more earnest in getting their forecasts right.

Again, maybe it was just our imagination, but the same could be said of all the officials involved in relief efforts and disaster mitigation, including local government executives, as they confronted what has been described as one of the worst typhoons in the world this year.

No one wanted to be the next Prisco Nilo. Even local government executives in the affected areas, who being elective officials cannot be fired by the President for incompetence or plain laziness in confronting a natural calamity, probably did not want to hear condemnation from an angry P-Noy.    

While Nilo’s ouster was unfortunate for the weather bureau, which already suffers from an acute lack of meteorologists, and while there are people who believe it was unfair to Nilo, it brought the fear of P-Noy into the hearts of other agency heads.

And so, regardless of whether Nilo’s ouster was justified or not, everyone was on his toes and visible at the height of typhoon Juan on Monday. Officials feared the fury of P-Noy more than the fury of Juan.

Think of what that fear of presidential fury could do in the battle against corruption and incompetence in government.  

I’m not sure if President Aquino would rather be loved by his subordinates than feared. But love is an elusive thing, and often fleeting (the bachelor should know), so he should just go for respect. And a president tends to get respect in this country when he shows that he can play tough, that he means business when he says he’s mad as hell and won’t take it anymore.

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As part of preparations for Juan, residents in high-risk areas were evacuated, the education department tweeted alerts on class suspensions, and billboard tarpaulins in Metro Manila were rolled down even if the capital was not directly in harm’s way.

Typhoon Juan lingered near the country yesterday afternoon, threatening to veer toward Metro Manila. But on Monday, it hewed to the forecast of PAGASA in terms of direction, time of landfall, wind velocity and amount of rainfall.

Among the early casualties was a man who was swept away to his death as he tried to save his water buffalo (the beast survived). As of yesterday the death toll stood at 10 – hardly close to the zero casualty count that P-Noy wanted, but still quite low considering the strength of the typhoon.

This could have been due in part to the fact that the howler, although meriting the hoisting of the highest storm warning signal No. 4 in Isabela province and thereabouts, was no “Ondoy,” although the strength of its winds came close to that of the destructive “Milenyo.”

But the less-than-catastrophic degree of devastation can also be attributed in part to the issuance of timely warnings and the preparedness of authorities for the worst.

Crops were harvested slightly ahead of the ideal time to save them from destruction. Houses and large trees were secured with ropes and other materials to save them from being blown away as weather trackers warned that Juan was packing powerful winds but not much rain.

President Aquino skipped the meeting Monday morning of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council at Camp Aguinaldo. The head of the council, Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin, said the President saw no need to attend because “everything is in order.”

Explanations of Palace officials identified with warring factions regarding the President’s absence were different, indicating that P-Noy’s team was still not acting as one and speaking with one voice right in his own backyard.

Fortunately, disaster mitigation efforts could not be compromised by factional rivalry in the administration. So officials performed their tasks. After Juan had blown over, P-Noy assessed the preparedness and declared that he was “very pleased.” Nilo isn’t going to have company in the wake of typhoon Juan.

To some observers, it looked like Nilo was ousted not because of inaccurate weather forecasting but because he’s no friend of the new secretary of science and technology.

Critics have contrasted the swift, almost whimsical sacking of Nilo with P-Noy’s steadfast defense of his friend, Interior Undersecretary Rico Puno, against ouster calls, as well as P-Noy’s seeming failure to make acting Interior Secretary Jesse Robredo resign following the Aug. 23 hostage fiasco.

Faced with an official who refuses to get the message that stepping down would be in the interest of his boss, a strong leader would simply tell the official that his resignation has been accepted.

Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo went a step further during her presidency, with Malacañang often announcing replacements without anyone bothering to inform those who had been replaced about their ouster. But some people considered that rudeness rather than a mark of leadership.

With long-time allies, loyal supporters and people whose silence was needed for her survival, GMA treaded gently, often rewarding them with low-profile sinecures if ever she had to strip them of key positions.

P-Noy is far from becoming a GMA, although some quarters are starting to make the comparison in his handling of his officials.

In firing Nilo and subsequent preparations for typhoon Juan, President Aquino has seen what happens when he shows that he means business in demanding efficiency in government.

People are watching to see how this will be tempered by friendship and alliances.