Erap: King or kingmaker?

Judging from the latest surveys results where Noynoy Aquino maintains his lead over Manny Villar and Joseph Estrada, it would seem that the Nacionalista Party and Partido ng Masang Pilipino candidates are dividing the vote of the same group of supporters that mostly come from the D and E or lower classes. A look at the numbers would indicate that the drop in Villar’s rating seems to have been transferred to Estrada, like in the March 19-22 SWS survey where the NP candidate lost six points while Erap gained four points.

Analysts are predicting a three-cornered fight among Aquino, Villar and Estrada, although some experts maintain it would be folly for candidates to be complacent at this point since a large percentage of voters are still undecided. With the elections just a month away, the next survey would most likely tell us who will be the next president of this country, and Erap may just come within striking distance.

 At the onset, loyal supporters and even some of Erap’s relatives were not sure about his candidacy. But Estrada is apparently determined to prove a point, encouraged by the unswerving loyalty of his masa supporters as indicated by surveys that show a steady 15 percent behind him. And in a multiparty system where as many as 10 candidates can be vying for the top position, a solid number like 15 percent can make a big difference. 

 Everyone knows this country has always been saddled with a minority president since 1992, with seven candidates running during that election period. It can be recalled that FVR got 23.58 percent of the total votes cast, allowing him to win by a very slim margin of 874,348 votes or less than four percent over Miriam Defensor Santiago’s total of 4,468,173 votes. There is no question that when Danding ran in 1992, he would have become president had he accepted the support of Imelda Marcos. Danding got 18.17 percent while Mrs. Marcos had 10.32 percent. Combined, they could have easily trumped FVR’s 23.58 percent. 

 A lot of people also believe that despite accusations of vote rigging and cheating, it is not improbable for GMA to have won over Fernando Poe Jr. in the 2004 elections. After all, the vote for the opposition was divided with the decision of Ping Lacson to run for the same position. GMA got 12.9 million votes (39.99 percent) against FPJ’s 11.7 million (36.51 percent). Had Lacson withdrawn in favor of FPJ, his 3.5 million votes or 10.88 percent would have turned the late reel action king into a real king.

 Erap obviously benefited from the wide field of candidates during the 1998 elections which included the late Raul Roco, Juan Ponce Enrile, Miriam Santiago, Renato de Villa and even Manoling Morato. Although Estrada was a runaway winner having won by a very big margin of 26 percent over closest rival Joe de Venecia, no question he was still a minority president because he obtained only 39.86 percent — certainly not the majority but just a plurality of the votes. 

 Filipinos have yet to see a candidate win by a majority, but that will never be possible for as long as we maintain the multiparty system. And mind you, cheating will always be easier — automated or not.

The Nacionalista Party is hurting because of the “Villaroyo” branding spread by the Liberal Party demolition team. On the other hand, the Noynoy camp is hammered by the Hacienda Luisita issue and just recently — although the NP camp denies being the source — the alleged psychiatric test done on the LP candidate in 1996 saying he was undergoing depression. Clearly, the campaign is getting dirtier as we get closer to election day, and you can expect both parties to engage in a lot more lowball politics. But as one foreign diplomat commented to me, politics here is getting so absurd that a presidential candidate is required to dispel rumors first, about “unexplained wealth” and then more recently, about “unexplained poverty.”

No matter who may win in the elections, he will definitely be a minority president — which means a larger percentage of Filipinos did not vote for him and most likely will not be supportive. And this is where Joseph Estrada’s role becomes crucial — as recognized by the NP and LP camps that both tried to lure Estrada to join their respective parties. But while Villar’s camp said they will welcome the former president with open arms and with no preconditions whatsoever, the loose coalition around Noynoy composed of NGOs, Makati businessmen and civil society groups say they don’t need Erap to win — and if at all, he has to pass certain conditions before he can join them.

One thing is certain today: Estrada has proven himself, and if he decides to become kingmaker, his declaration of support for either Villar or Aquino would end the election. As they say in Tagalog, “ayos na ang buto-buto” — or more accurately, “tapos na ang boto-boto.”

But to the loyal followers of Erap – who will be celebrating his 73rd birthday this April 19 – he has already proven himself no matter what the outcome of the elections will be. Joseph Estrada has clearly shown he has the ability to be king whether in reel or real life. But to the larger majority of Filipinos closely watching the events — the former president can take on an even greater role in real life. And that is to be the undisputed kingmaker — because he, and he alone – has the power to influence the outcome of history in this country.

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