Defining issue

Business confidence for the year is up, no doubt buoyed by the prospect of a change in leadership by the end of June. Economic growth prospects for the year are also better.

Investors know enough not to finalize any major deals requiring government approval in the twilight of any Philippine administration. All new investment or expansion plans are on hold. But once a new president is proclaimed and starts forming his government, the investment climate is expected to improve.

Even if the country, like the rest of the world, is just starting to recover from the global financial meltdown, the economy is not the overriding concern of voters in the ongoing election campaign.

In a presidential race, there is usually a defining issue, and the candidate perceived to be best suited to deal with it wins. Bill Clinton grasped this in a time of recession and used it effectively when he ran against George H.W. Bush in the 1992 presidential race with the slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid.”

In the Philippines, the defining issue has become Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. She could have weakened the impact of her kiss of death if she had spent her final six months quietly preparing for a peaceful turnover of power. The scandals of the previous year – the lavish dinners, the initial lies about the leaking breast implant – were nowhere near as bad as the corruption scandals of the previous years. Natural disasters and the death of Corazon Aquino also dominated the news in the second half of 2009.

A neutral issue – climate change – and survival amid massive flooding preoccupied the people as the year drew to a close and politicians filed their candidacies. People focused on making sure there would be no massive cheating in the country’s first fully automated elections. Administration critics counted down to the end of nine long years.

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But the President managed to make herself the issue once again within just the past four months. She filed her certificate of candidacy for a seat in the House of Representatives, in hopes of becoming speaker or, in case Charter change pushes through in the next Congress, to return to power as prime minister. There are no secrets in this small town; such stories come from her own party mates and are picked up by her critics.

GMA then proceeded to lay the groundwork for governance by proxy once she steps down, appointing her loyal aides to every vacant position with a fixed term. Where there was no vacancy, she created one, without the courtesy of informing the replaced official.

Then she obtained a ruling from the Arroyo Supreme Court, allowing her to appoint the next chief justice even if, by the time the vacancy is created, the country would have elected a new president.

Since then she has made a flurry of other appointments, swearing in judges and justices en masse on the eve of the start of the election ban on midnight appointments. This was on the same day that she bypassed two classes of the Philippine Military Academy to install her favorite aide as the new Armed Forces chief.

The other day, with one of her new appointees dying of pancreatic cancer less than a month after his promotion, Malacañang announced that the President wanted to appoint a new presiding justice of the Sandiganbayan.

In explaining the President’s determination to appoint the next chief justice, her defenders have pointed to the role played by the SC chief in the electoral tribunal that will handle any protest that might arise in connection with the presidential race.

The Sandiganbayan presiding justice does not have that role. What would be the reason for insisting on the appointment of a new one?

As of yesterday, one of the justices of the court, which handles corruption cases exclusively, assumed the role of acting presiding justice. Critics of the SC ruling on the chief justice have also insisted that one of the justices of the high tribunal – traditionally the most senior member – can serve as acting SC chief during a vacancy.

Inevitably, the speculation is that the President wants to make sure the heads of both the anti-graft court and the SC will owe her a debt of gratitude, which could come in handy if she is charged with plunder once she loses her immunity from lawsuits.

Inevitably, too, the impression is that this President will have to be dragged kicking and screaming away from Malacañang.

All of which can only drive voters to the presidential candidate perceived to be the antithesis of GMA: who else but the son of the president who is remembered for giving up power willingly, peacefully, and right on schedule at the end of a single six-year term.

With just a month to go before election day, Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, only son of Ninoy and Cory, is enjoying a comfortable lead, in surveys taken by the country’s top two pollsters, over his closest rival, Sen. Manny Villar.

Yesterday, as Pulse Asia released the results of its March survey, with results similar to the one taken by Social Weather Stations during the same period, Villar admitted that his ratings have suffered from reports that he is actually “Villaroyo,” the true candidate of President Arroyo.

It would be interesting to see how the Villars, who take pride in their management acumen, wiggle out of this one. If the story is true, it would also be interesting to find out what drove them to such folly, after seeing how the kiss of death has affected the candidacy of Gilbert Teodoro, standard-bearer of what’s left of the administration Lakas-Kampi-CMD party.

Nacionalista Party stalwarts should tell their standard-bearer that if he is truly in league with GMA, he is committing political suicide.

Meanwhile, Noynoy Aquino’s Liberal Party should send the President a thank-you note.