What are GMA's real options and limitations?

Last Thursday’s Supreme Court decision to allow Madame Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (GMA) to appoint a new Chief Justice of the High Court — despite the clear Constitutional ban during an election period — was met by widespread negative reactions from many sectors of Philippine society. You know that it was a very unpopular and controversial decision because even administration presidential candidate Gilbert Teodoro cautioned GMA about it.

To many who were dismayed over the decision, they saw a partisan vote by the nine Associate Justices who voted in favor of it. An overwhelming majority of the current Supreme Court have been appointed by GMA. A retired Supreme Court Justice wondered why the High Court went against its own decision in 1998.

But more than the questionable decision, what alarmed many was the perceived signal that GMA was setting into motion a sinister plan to keep her in power beyond the end of her term on June 30, 2010. The controversial Supreme Court decision has to be viewed within the context of previous actions that were largely perceived as preparatory stages that will allow GMA to retain power beyond her term.

These are as follows:

1. The appointment of GMA operator Norberto Gonzales as National Defense Secretary.

2. GMA’s insistence to run as Pampanga Representative in the May 10, 2010 elections which is considered degrading and untypical for an exiting Chief Executive to do.

3. The appointment of another GMA operator, Leandro Mendoza, as replacement Executive Secretary.

4. The appointment of Lt. General Delfin Bangit as Armed Forces Chief of Staff.

Put all the suspected appointments together with Ronnie Puno — GMA’s “Merry Men” — and you cannot blame those who see an impending realization of the sum of all our fears. Ronnie opted to continue running the DILG (Department of the Interior and Local Government) where he will be co-terminus with GMA when he could have opted to run as vice president or for another public office.

The fear of many is focused on a programmed failure of elections for the national posts of president, vice president and senators. With GMA conceded to win as a Pampanga Representative, she could be elected as the new Speaker of the House of Representatives. With no elected president and vice president, with no Senate President — as Juan Ponce-Enrile’s term also ends on June 30, 2010 — GMA as the new Speaker of the House becomes the national caretaker.

The recent snags in the automation setup in the Comelec (Commission on Elections) as well as the questionable eviction of local government incumbents allied with leading presidential candidate Noynoy Aquino heightened the people’s fears. All the Comelec Commissioners are also GMA appointees.

We now come to the point of whether GMA is bold or crazy enough to try to pull off this feared scenario or if there will be other scenarios at play. Despite her track record for acting with impunity, she will be extremely reckless to try to pull this off just when the Yellow Army has resurrected and provoking People Power is a very likely reaction.

At this point, even with a majority of Filipinos suffering from the Information and Education Gaps, this move is just too brazen and obvious that it will surely provoke People Power. Even the ‘village idiot’ will see this as a power grab. There is intense public passion during an election and it is the height of recklessness and stupidity to even contemplate attempting this.

The hidden factor here is how the US will react to this power grab. GMA could not even pull off her emergency rule PP1017 Executive Order which was promulgated after the February 24, 2006 Fort Bonifacio military standoff. She immediately withdrew it after the US asked her to do so. The US — verbalized by no less than Defense Secretary Robert Gates, State Secretary Hillary Clinton, CIA Chief Leon Panetta and former Ambassador Kristie Kenney — had expressed confidence that we will have a good May 10, 2010 political exercise and concern if that did not happen.

There is a big US agenda in Mindanao which almost resulted in the aborted MOA-BJE (Memorandum of Agreement for a Bangsamoro Juridical Entity). US geopolitical interests in a projected future conflict with China require US military operational capabilities in the South China Sea. Add to that the attraction of the oil deposits in the South China Sea which China has claimed.

The US would not want to see a local conflict here that will provide China an avenue to participate actively in Philippine affairs in order to stop the US Mindanao agenda. That feared GMA power grab which can be expected to push the country to a civil war could well be the avenue for China to support one faction. If the power grab does happen, it would be accomplished with US consent.

Should the US decide to be consistent with the previous statements of Secretaries Gates and Clinton, the most likely action plan of GMA and her “Merry Men” would be to ensure that a GMA man is elected as the new president. Seeing that administration official candidate Gilbert Teodoro is just too far behind to become the 2010 president, it is easy to see why “Money Villarroyo” flies.

For GMA, it is anybody but leading presidential candidate Noynoy Aquino and possibly third placer Joseph Estrada. Second placer Manny Villar is the only real possibility for preventing a Noynoy Aquino victory.

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Chair Wrecker e-mail and website: [email protected] and www.chairwrecker.com