Prepare for the worst

As promised to the media, Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago delivered a blistering speech the other day about the person she believes is behind a campaign of harassment against her.

And as everyone expected, the person identified was Interior Secretary Ronaldo Puno, whose department has jurisdiction over the Philippine National Police (PNP). His response to Santiago’s speech boiled down to: What else is new?

The two have been enemies since 1992, when Santiago lost the presidency to Fidel Ramos through what she claimed was a vote shaving and padding scheme code-named Oplan Dagdag-Bawas. The man behind the operation, Santiago believes to this day, was Ronnie Puno.

These days Santiago is realistic enough to realize that she has missed the one opportunity of her lifetime for the presidency. For that lost opportunity, she blames Puno, master of political survival, and the guy who likes to take credit for President Arroyo’s restoration of convicted (and pardoned) plunderer Joseph Estrada’s political rights.

Santiago’s loathing for Puno may be coloring her viewpoint, but several of the concerns she raised in her speech on the Senate floor should not be dismissed.

Of particular concern for all should be the possibility of cheating in the general elections in May. The nation’s experience in the past two elections and the poll-related massacre in Maguindanao give urgency to that concern.

Reacting to Santiago’s speech, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) assured the public that cheating by manipulating the results of the country’s first fully automated polls would be difficult.

Other groups, on the other hand, continue to fret that the 82,200 precinct count optical scan or PCOS machines could be hacked, and could suffer glitches in the tropical heat if not stored in temperature-controlled rooms.

Smartmatic-Total Information Management, which bagged the automation contract, has reassured the public that backup systems are in place in case of certain glitches. Smartmatic-TIM executives demonstrated a PCOS machine to The STAR last month to show how it would do away with many of the ways by which manual votes were manipulated.

Comelec Chairman Jose Melo also explained to me how automation would eliminate one notorious way of vote-buying, which used to guarantee that candidates got what they paid for.

The Comelec is expected to put the PCOS machines through several tests, culminating in a large-scale test, ideally involving all the machines, shortly before May 10, Election Day.

But concerns persist and must be taken seriously, especially with several government agencies seeing their computer systems hacked in the past two months. Government officials said the hackings were not dry runs for cheating in May, but how could they be sure of that? In two of the cases, the PCOS machines and Smartmatic-TIM were mentioned. And to this day, the hackers have not been traced.

We should also not dismiss lightly the repeated warnings of Defense Secretary Norberto Gonzales about the possible failure of elections.

A postponement of the elections could trigger a revolution nationwide, larger than any people power revolt that we have seen. But there have been many firsts under this administration, and those working for credible elections must see to it that all possible scenarios are covered.

Apart from constantly reassuring the public that automation will work in May, the Comelec should also prepare for its fallback – a switch to manual voting and counting in places where automation might fail.

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The Comelec has been given a degree of control over the PNP and the Armed Forces of the Philippines to ensure that the elections will be orderly and peaceful.

But the Comelec can only do so much in stopping election-related violence, especially if those involved — as in the Maguindanao massacre — include state forces themselves. The AFP is back on bodyguard duty for politicians, while militias have been allowed to hold on to their firearms, to serve as “force multipliers” against security threats during the elections.

Violence and intimidation, of both voters and candidates, erode the credibility of elections as much as outright cheating and vote buying.

Senator Santiago cited two developments that she found particularly worrisome. One is the transfer of police chiefs in the provinces of Pangasinan, Cavite, Bataan, Nueva Ecija, Zambales and Leyte without consulting mayors of the affected areas. The other is the transfer of all armored units under the PNP Regional Special Action Forces and the Regional Mobile Groups as well as the recall of all crew-served weapons to the SAF headquarters in Sta. Rosa, Laguna.

Someone could be laying the groundwork for cheating, Santiago warned.

Other quarters have warned that with the Supreme Court still not ruling on the validity of President Arroyo’s Proclamation 1959, which placed Maguindanao under martial law in the wake of the massacre, the pretext of a “looming rebellion” can still be used to impose martial law if violence erupts anywhere in the country. The state of emergency in Maguindanao and the election gun ban have not ended violence in that province. Yesterday a relative of the star witness against massacre suspects Andal Ampatuan Sr. and Jr. was shot dead.

Military rule can facilitate poll fraud, especially if violence and a breakdown of PCOS machines compel a switch to manual voting and counting.

Those dire scenarios may never materialize, and the Comelec may prove all the doubters wrong. Santiago may simply be seeing Ronnie Puno hiding behind every bush and lamppost.

But in this country, a touch of skepticism can be healthy. Better to be paranoid than sorry.