Close race should end in a no-brainer

An Ibon Foundation survey done on the first week of October but released only last week has Senator Noynoy Aquino again on top, followed as usual by Senator Manny Villar. With the top two slots virtually unchanged, the significance lies in the gap between the two.

While a previous survey by the rival Social Weather Stations had Aquino garnering more than 50 percent of the vote, the Ibon survey showed him garnering 22.6 percent when respondents were asked who they would vote for if elections were held on the day of the survey.

Villar, on the other hand, posted 19.32 percent in the October survey, still only good enough for second but decidedly within striking distance. The significance of his numbers is that he has moved up from his previous 17.12 percent rating.

As in previous surveys, the ratings of those who ranked third and downward were not significant enough to pose a challenge to the two frontrunners. At this stage, therefore, the surveys would seem to suggest a fight only between Aquino and Villar.

However, despite the obviously dismal performance of administration bet Gilbert Teodoro in the surveys, the fact that he has the resources and the machinery of the administration behind him makes him difficult to leave out of the picture, his ratings notwithstanding.

And simply because there just isn't any separating the masses from their gullibility, any legally unhampered bid by convicted plunderer Joseph Estrada for the presidency he has disgraced will necessarily keep him in the running.

That should leave Aquino, Villar, Teodoro and Estrada as the only four presidentiables with any realistic crack at the presidency. The others, which we will no longer mention so as not to further confuse our countrymen, have simply not taken off and are as good as grounded.

A four-cornered fight will be very tight, the tightness being the result of the failure of Teodoro to break away as should have been expected of one who enjoys the advantage of being with the administration.

If the race continues to be tight all the way to the elections, I would not be surprised if the momentum shifts from being a close fight between Aquino and Villar to a close fight between Villar and Teodoro.

Remember that Aquino is only in the lead because of an emotional fad spawned by the death of his mother. In the real hardball game that is Philippine politics, the real impetus to the campaign is having the resources.

This is not to say we applaud and encourage money politics and power plays. But we are just being realistic. Change and reform are still a far cry in a country that has never been serious about change and reform beyond rhetoric.

When the juggernaught of superior resources start to kick in, especially in the last few days leading to the election, the surveys will become almost totally irrelevant. All politics being local, who gets the grassroots will win the election.

And in the grassroots they do not care about reform and change, much less about genes. It always boils down to who is in your face. Whoever is zealous and jealous will get and protect the votes.

Of course this country is not totally gone. And there is still room for intelligence and intelligent choices. But even in that situation, the fight between Villar and Teodoro will become more pronounced.

Villar has the experience and the management skills, while Teodoro has the youth and the intelligence. Aquino only has the bleeding heart, and Estrada his crocodile tears. Those who want intelligent debate, here is a no-brainer.