Political psy-war

All this talk about the imposition of Martial Law and Charter change or Cha-cha and the trading of accusations and denials between the administration and opposition camps are just part of psy-war to influence people’s perceptions and make them believe a certain group’s claims. But at the end of the day, it’s the Filipinos who will ultimately decide whether they believe something and if they will do something about it.

EDSA I happened because a confluence of events made people decide it was time to hit the streets, giving rise to the People Power Revolution that ended Martial Law in the country. EDSA II however was more of a conspiracy, with the design of a certain sector influencing the outcome of events in the rest of the country.

 After two EDSAs, it will take a lot more than just mere rumors before Filipinos take to the streets once again because they no longer easily believe any talk of Martial Law. There are some who are advocating authoritarian rule much like what Lee Kuan Yew did for Singapore, but that’s one scenario that will not happen. After Marcos, people will no longer tolerate any attempt to establish authoritarian rule — something that has already failed. So right now, we’re stuck with a flawed system that hopefully, will be changed when the right opportunity comes.

 But at the end of the day, many like me believe that elections will take place next year despite rumors to the contrary. After all, part of psy-war is the use of rumor which can be an effective tool in a country like the Philippines where people are so ready to believe every kind of “chismis” (nowadays usually via text or e-mail) as if it were Gospel truth.

Naturally, the current subject of speculation is GMA and her political plans. All sorts of scenarios and conspiracy theories are being aired — from the Mindanao bombings to the early retirement of generals and their appointment to ambassadorial positions as part of a grand scenario called “Oplan August Moon” to set the stage for a dictatorship and perpetuate the rule of GMA. (The military leadership, for its part, has repeatedly emphasized that the soldiers are professionals, and that the era of military adventurism is over.)     

It could very well be that Malacañang is also fanning these rumors and speculations to keep people from treating GMA as a lame duck president. In fact, even her frequent visits to Pampanga are all part of the plan to keep people guessing about her political intentions. One could still recall when, during an occasion, GMA told the audience, “Who knows, I may even run in Pampanga in 2010” — followed by a very hearty chuckle as if she was relishing a private joke.

In politics and in most everything else, perception is 90 percent of the game — something that FVR was a master of. The wily former president has a team of psy-war experts adept both at neutralizing negative news and going on the offensive by launching massive information campaigns to direct the mindset of people about certain issues.

Politicians know the power of perception, and that psy-war is part and parcel of the game. In the last SWS survey, results show Vice President Noli de Castro being dislodged from the top position by Manny Villar, with former president Joseph Estrada inching up to second place. A number of erstwhile frontrunners, however, were shown sliding further down. But as Loren Legarda said, all this is psy-war especially since results could have been affected by the “infomercials” of some presidentiables that have crept into the consciousness of survey respondents.

Nevertheless, people from the upper crust of society are already having nightmares at the news that Joseph Estrada has climbed up to the number two spot in surveys, especially with the statement of Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile that Erap can and should run with or without constitutional barriers because at the end of the day, he believes it’s the people who will ultimately decide on who would be the next president of this country.

 In fact, in a speech of Joseph Estrada before the Philippine Constitution Association, he cited Chief Justice Reynato Puno’s statement in one of his decisions that “this court may err but the sovereign people will not” — underscoring that all government authority emanates from the people. As it is said, “vox populi est suprema lex,” and so it shouldn’t be a surprise if Erap Estrada may just end up making history and not “become history,” so to speak.

There are so many political intrigues going on in this country that people like outgoing British Ambassador Peter Beckingham, who arrived in the Philippines four years ago and wanted to understand the character of the Filipino — is now about to leave even more confused than ever. But he says he will certainly miss everything in this country because there is “never a dull moment.”

 As the run-up to 2010 election draws nearer, we can expect a lot more rumors and conspiracy theories to come out. But just like many others, I’m convinced that there will be elections in 2010 and that GMA will turn over the reins of government to the new president as scheduled on June 30, 2010. After that, who knows if Charter change will take place or not, or if we will have a new form of government? And as pointed out by Congressman Danny Suarez, Charter change will only happen if people want it, and not necessarily because GMA or anybody else says so.

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