Scenarios

With the joint opening of Congress and President Arroyo’s final State of the Nation Address (SONA) approaching, a new sinister scenario is being floated.

At this point the scenario looks more like wishful thinking on the part of desperadoes than anything else.

On the other hand, this administration has a track record for resorting to desperate, evil measures to serve its interests. At the risk of being deemed paranoid, certain seemingly wild scenarios must not be dismissed outright.

Those claiming to have first-hand knowledge of sinister plots want the nation to be on its toes, reminding Filipinos that grievous events have happened in this country in the past four decades that the people thought would never happen.

With the scenarios being floated in connection with the joint opening of Congress late next month, postponing the SONA may be a good idea.

The scenarios aren’t just health-related, though these are the wackiest, with anti-government forces supposedly planning to unleash germ warfare on the President and her congressional lackeys.

A more plausible scenario is that the House of Representatives will con senators into becoming part of a constituent assembly (con-ass) through their sheer presence at the joint opening of the third and final session of the 14th Congress.

Senators are expected to walk out, and the consequent tumult, according to certain quarters, will be used as an excuse to declare emergency rule, during which anything can happen.

It’s not beyond this President to impose emergency rule, shut down Congress, declare a revolutionary government and rewrite the Constitution so she can stay in power for life.

This is the scenario; you’ve been warned.

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There are at least two wild cards in this scenario.

One is that the tumult against con-ass, with contrived Senate participation, may not be enough to justify the declaration of emergency rule. As recent events have shown, Filipinos are content to just wait for the May 2010 elections to roll around – whether automated or manual doesn’t matter all that much – to see a change in leadership after nine long years.

Also, unless senators are asleep, handcuffed to their seats or downed by a virulent form of Influenza A(H1N1) at the joint opening session, it would be impossible to prevent their walkout at the first hint that a con-ass is being convened.

But there is the possibility that for several million reasons, a senator or two (or even four) can be persuaded to stay on, giving the House the token Senate participation that it needs for con-ass.

The second wild card is military participation. Unless another diplomatic post is found for him, Victor Ibrado will still be the Armed Forces chief when the third session opens late next month. And like his predecessor and classmate in the Philippine Military Academy, Alexander Yano, Ibrado isn’t the type who will allow the AFP to be used for emergency rule.

While the President’s loyal aide Delfin Bangit is now in place to take over from Ibrado, and has filled key Army and intelligence positions with his PMA classmates, Ibrado is just starting to warm his seat. Sending Ibrado overseas like his two “mistahs” will look too suspicious — although when did that stop this administration?

As of yesterday the President’s House allies led by Speaker Prospero Nograles, whose position is on the line, were still blowing hot and cold on con-ass.

Nograles, who seems like a sensible man, must know the futility of this effort. Instead of playing along, he can boost his political stock in time for the 2010 elections by coming clean on the true movers of con-ass.

If he does that, he will be denied by the individuals he identifies and he may go the way of his predecessor, Pangasinan Rep. Jose de Venecia. It doesn’t take much for the majority of House members to prostitute their loyalties and votes to oust yet another speaker.

But this is a good time to disengage from evil, desperate schemes. Instead of crying his heart out in private to friends about pressure on con-ass, Nograles can show some intestinal fortitude and go public with his true sentiments. The House — and the nation — will be a better place.

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Evil designs can be realized only if people do nothing about it.

So far, the word from the AFP is that there is no appetite among military personnel to take part in partisan activities for or against the administration at this time.

The betting is that if the commander-in-chief gives an order inimical to public interest, key military officers have the discernment to consider the order illegal and disobey it.

All is not lost for this country. When martial law was contemplated in 2005, a PMAyer refused to carry out an order to shut down abs-cbn. Civilian and military officials balked at a suggestion by the nation’s evil crackpot to set off a bomb at the Senate in the wee hours of the morning.

There are military officers who know how to turn their backs on illegal orders.

Thanks to punishment meted on participants in coup attempts in recent years, and thanks to defense reforms that have slowly taken root, AFP officers have also learned not to allow themselves to be used by power-hungry politicians.

But strange things happen in this country, and a bit of paranoia can be useful. Scenarios can be created, as in the staged ambush of Juan Ponce Enrile’s car that was used as an excuse for imposing martial law. Fourteen years later, as his influence in the Marcos regime waned, Enrile’s boys would try to unseat Ferdinand Marcos in a coup attempt that would trigger people power. Today Enrile, his loyalties unclear, heads the Senate.

If Filipinos had been more vigilant in 1972, martial law might not have been possible.