Political surveys in the Philippines have recently been spiraling into a frenzy. And why not? With the next election now just 11 months away but campaigning still officially banned until much later, what better way to get around that prohibition than by way of surveys.
There is no restriction in the commissioning of surveys, so they can serve as the perfect vehicle to project a desired political picture depending on the spin being sought by those who pay for the surveys to be undertaken.
This is not to say surveys can be or are being bought or manipulated. Nevertheless, nobody would also probably pay good money to have a survey undertaken and then be projected in a miserably bad light.
If I commission a survey, certaintly I would not want to be the one among several roses to stink. And this is why it is very good business to do surveys, especially at this time when the air is electric with electoral politics. Projection is influential.
By the way, do not believe the doomsayers who say there will be no elections next year. There will be. Filipinos cannot live without elections. Do away with elections and there will be chaos. In elections we are united. It is only in the results that we kill one another.
Now, back to the surveys. The latest one shows, not surprisingly, vice President Noli de Castro in the lead. Why do I say not surprisingly? Because that is the very image the administration wants to project, at least at this point.
De Castro is a benign personality. He is harmless. He cannot send people on the warpath against the administration the way President Arroyo can, for instance. But look at the latest poll. While de Castro is still in the lead, his lead has started to slip.
I would not be surprised if, as the months wear on toward the elections, new names from the administration would start intruding into the survey lists while that of de Castro would continue to slip.
That is because that the surveys have consistently showed so far — that of de Castro being consistently in the lead — is actually a sham. What do you think de Castro has done to merit such a consistent lofty rating.
In fact, Filipinos can do their own unofficial but more reliable surveys by asking around and I am willing to bet almost nobody gives de Castro any credence. Who the heck is he that we would want to entrust the fate of the nation in his hands?
But again, surveys have jobs to do. So, not only does the latest survey start to condition the minds of Filipinos about the eventual slipping away of de Castro, it is also starting to pull up those who, heretofore, had been dwelling in the cellar.
Could you ever believe that Mar Roxas would suddenly be breathing down the necks of de Castro and the other heretofore frontrunner Manny Villar? This is not to say Roxas cannot play catch up. With his money he can. But so suddenly, after months in the cellar? Come on.
Or take Villar. He has consistently been up there with de Castro, so why the sudden plummet? I do not believe the drop is a reflection of the ethics complaint he faces before the Senate because that is all hogwash.
The ethics complaint against Villar is concocted by a gang of envious crabs whose idea of political maturity and leadership is relentless mudslinging complemented by a total lack of transparency about their own qualities and how and where they intend to take the Philippines.
The sudden dive of de Castro and Villar in the latest survey, and the corresponding rise in the rankings of the cellar-dwellers, is consistent with what one can expect of surveys. The only truth they tell depends on what kind of truth you want to see.