Mass appeal

Barring a typhoon or flu-related incident, the frontrunner in all surveys on presidential aspirants for 2010 will be in South Africa this weekend.

I’m not referring to boxing champion Manny Pacquiao, who has so far kept his political aspirations relatively modest, eyeing only a second stab at a congressional seat.

I’m referring to Vice President Noli “Kabayan” de Castro, who will be representing the Philippines at the swearing-in of South Africa’s controversial but popular new president, Jacob Zuma.

An interesting footnote to this trip is that two vice presidents before De Castro also represented the Philippines at the inauguration of two previous post-apartheid presidents of South Africa.

The first, Joseph Estrada, attended Nelson Mandela’s inauguration in 1994. Erap won the presidency by a landslide in 1998. The second was Erap’s VP, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, who attended Thabo Mbeki’s inaugural in 1999, two years before she rose to power.

Will destiny bestow its blessings in the same way on De Castro?

The latest buzz is that De Castro is genuinely not interested in the presidency, preferring to seek re-election instead. As of yesterday, he was rumored to be the likely running mate of the man who is placing second to him in the surveys: Sen. Manny Villar. But the situation is fluid, and as we like to say, a week is a long time in Philippine politics.

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De Castro will find something in common with the new South African president: Zuma served as Mbeki’s deputy president and is immensely popular among the masses. But there the similarities end.

Jacob Zuma cut his teeth in the anti- apartheid movement. But the world remembers him for accusations of rape filed against him in 2005 by a 31-year-old HIV-positive anti-AIDS activist. The woman is the daughter of one of Zuma’s deceased comrades in the anti-apartheid struggle.

Zuma said the sex at his home in Johannesburg was consensual, and while he did not use a condom, he took a shower afterwards to “cut the risk of contracting HIV.”

People thought the rape case heralded the end of Zuma’s political career. But he was acquitted in May 2006 and staged a dramatic comeback. Two years ago I watched him face a sea of mostly hostile African journalists in Cape Town during a luncheon at the annual gathering of the World Editors’ Forum. The South African political cartoonist whom he sued for lampooning him, known as Zapiro, sat beside me at the table and sketched as Zuma fielded critical comments with remarkable aplomb.

When the African National Congress (ANC) — also the party of Mandela and Mbeki — retained its hold on power in the recent South African elections, it picked Zuma as president, confounding his critics.

South Africans who are aware of Zuma’s negative image overseas point out that the people voted not so much for Zuma but for the ANC, which has brought progress and development to their country despite the complex problems arising from decades of apartheid. Zuma also succeeded in portraying himself to the masses as an underdog, a victim of a political conspiracy.

The fact that the ANC picked him despite previous accusations of rape, corruption and fraud (also dropped) is testament to Zuma’s political acumen and his formidable natural charm that has made him popular among the masses.

The same charm continues to endear Erap to the masses, though it remains to be seen whether that will translate into votes for him in case he ignores legal questions and seeks re-election next year.

After all, Pacquiao, for all his immense popularity, could not dislodge the Antonino clan from political power in his home province of South Cotabato, losing his congressional bid in 2007 to Darlene Antonino-Custodio.

Mass appeal has also propelled Noli de Castro to the top of the surveys.

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While in South Africa, De Castro may also want to ask about the system of voting in that country whose land area is four times larger than that of the Philippines.

With a voting population of 20 million, South Africa can announce official election results within one and a half days. The voting system is manual.

Though there are isolated complaints of poll fraud, the elections are generally considered credible.

In one case, a container that fell out of a delivery vehicle was found to have questionable filled-out ballots, but it became the butt of jokes rather than a cause for serious concern.

Manual voting has also worked for Britain. This should give some comfort to those dismayed by the possible failure of bidding for automation equipment at the Commission on Elections, and the possible failure to push through with automated polls next year.

De Castro’s victory in manual voting was challenged by his closest rival, Sen. Loren Legarda. Whichever position he seeks next year, he should not want his victory to be questioned again.

Legarda herself is a charmer, though no one can match Erap when it comes to natural charm. De Castro does not come close, and his mass appeal baffles his critics who think the country deserves a more competent president in the age of information and globalization.

In 2005 at the height of the “Hello, Garci” scandal, De Castro rejected the so-called Hyatt 10’s call for him to take over, being the constitutional successor, if the President stepped down. That was one of the factors behind the failure of that ouster move.

The Vice President has kept his head down amid all the controversies bedeviling the administration.

Though he has personal problems, he has so far managed to keep any scandal under control.

No controversy, no fighting with anyone, and no personal hard sell. If the surveys are any indication, Noli de Castro has retained the popularity that he earned as a media personality based not so much on his achievements as a public official but on what he has not done.