Not the time for leadership change

The latest impeachment complaint filed against President Arroyo, and the ensuing circus it has generated at the House of Representatives, proves yet once more why the Philippines does not deserve the respect of most countries.

While the rest of the world is trying to figure out how to cope with and survive the global financial meltdown, which is threatening the lives of everyone, here come the Filipinos, finding nothing better to do at this time of crisis than try and change horses in mid-stream.

It is true Arroyo is the most unpopular president since Marcos. And she has been accused of many irregularities and improprieties, some probably true. Unfortunately, the public perception generated by these charges has not been matched by hard and direct evidence.

So, either she is improbably innocent completely, or is very astute in covering her tracks. Or maybe her enemies are just too sloppy in gathering evidence, granting it even exists. Whatever, this whole rigmarole is not doing the Philippines any good at this time.

What it will do is only create political instability at a time when it is economic stability that should be the first order of the day. As a result, what a funny picture we must be projecting to the rest of the world.

As this was written, the leaders of some of the leading economies of the world just wrapped up the latest Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima, with the state of the global financial situation foremost in the agenda, and consequently in their to-do list.

As this was written, more than 50 percent of the global news content of most major daily newspapers and television networks were naturally about the economy, with the rest taken up mostly by those unavoidable armed conflicts that just seem to keep flashing up everywhere.

Yet, in the Philippines, the news was mostly about the impeachment complaint against Arroyo, and the great struggle among cheap politicians to squeeze whatever publicity value they can get out of the unfolding development.

So what does the Philippines, standing out like a sore thumb from the rest of the world, hope to achieve with an impeachment, granting it succeeds and Arroyo is found guilty by the Senate and is ousted.

Since the Edsa People Power revolt, Filipinos have not stopped getting an erection out of kicking a leader from office. So, to be sure, ousting an unpopular and presumably corrupt president should come as a victory of some sort. 

But what price victory if it will be a Pyrrhic one, one that compromises the future beyond Arroyo. The positive element in any change in leadership at this time will be overtaken by the negative consequences of an economy whose longing for stability has been compromised.

A change in leadership with just a little over a year to go before the next election inspires neither confidence nor stability in a country that is not exactly in the best of financial health to begin with.

More so if, following the Constitutional process, it is the vice president, Noli de Castro who takes over the reins of government. De Castro, after all, does not possess the kind of qualifications that can inspire confidence and stability in a crisis.

But what if all those who conspired to oust Arroyo feel they did not go through all the trouble just to install de Castro in office? What if they decide, once in power, to simply put in a junta until the scheduled elections swing around?

Now, one must remember that once certain possibilities kick in, it becomes almost impossible to keep other possibilities in check. Once astride a tiger, there is no coming down. So what happens if the junta decides to stay, scraps the elections, and installs a strongman?