Keeping the momentum

The dangerous part of the peace process, according to Robert Hannigan, comes shortly after a breakthrough has been achieved.

“That is the moment of maximum opposition,” said Hannigan, who is speaking from experience after spending a decade as political director general overseeing the implementation of the peace agreement in Northern Ireland that was hammered out by the government of British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

Hannigan, 43, is now Blair’s successor Gordon Brown’s security adviser and head of the UK’s Security, Intelligence and Resilience.

He recalls that dissident Irish Republicans staged their worst bombings in the summer after the so-called Good Friday Agreement was signed in 1998, which involved power sharing between the two major Northern Ireland parties, the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Fein.

Hannigan, 43, who first visited the Philippines as a tourist nearly two decades ago, arrived the other night on the invitation of the Philippine government to share the British experience in the Ireland peace process. “We’re not looking to intervene,” he emphasized, pointing out that there are many differences between the problems in Northern Ireland and in Mindanao.

Last night Hannigan flew to Davao together with UK Ambassador Peter Beckingham to meet with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front’s Eid Kabalu. The MILF has been trying to restart peace talks, which collapsed after the deadly rampage staged by the group in reaction to the aborted signing of the Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain (MOA-AD).

Hannigan emphasized the need to keep the peace process alive, though he did not prescribe any particular step that should be taken.

“The best thing is to keep the momentum and to keep trying,” he told me yesterday afternoon at Beckingham’s residence where he stayed during his visit. “If there’s a vacuum it gets filled with violence… if we stop there is always the danger of violence.”

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The Philippine government is taking a different approach after the MILF’s refusal – or failure – to turn in the two commanders responsible for the rampage that left scores of villagers dead in several provinces.

Loreto Leo Ocampos, governor of Misamis Occidental whose province was one of the worst hit by the rampage, remembers waking up to reports that 40 of his constituents had been killed in an MILF raid.

Certain groups now want the government’s peace panel dissolved and the foreign facilitator, Malaysia, replaced, possibly by another member of the Organization of Islamic Conference.

So far there has been no announcement of the formal dissolution of the peace panel. Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process Hermogenes Esperon Jr., who appeared to have been the government’s point man in that trip to Malaysia for the MOA-AD signing, was among the members of the Cabinet security cluster that discussed the peace process with Hannigan yesterday.

But the government has changed its approach. From direct negotiations with the MILF, whose leaders do not seem to have control over their commanders, the government is now taking the process to the ground level and pursuing a so-called policy of DDR — disarmament, demobilization and rehabilitation.

A part of DDR is similar to the decommissioning of paramilitary weapons that was pursued in Northern Ireland. As in most peace processes around the world, this was one of the most contentious issues in the implementation of the Good Friday Agreement, according to Hannigan.

Other contentious issues included the release of paramilitary prisoners. The Irish have punished those responsible for many of the atrocities perpetrated during the decades-old conflict including murders and terrorist attacks. The peace agreement paved the way for an “early release scheme” for the prisoners, which Hannigan said “was very painful for the community.”

But he also noted that in any agreement, “there will be people who will feel that that they have lost out.”

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Violence has greatly subsided in Northern Ireland, which is why Manila invited Hannigan to share his country’s experience in dealing with separatist aspirations.

The Irish peace process is far from over. The Democratic Unionists and Sinn Fein are still discussing the final part of the agreement, which involves the devolution of policing and justice powers from Westminster to the Northern Ireland Assembly.

“Concluding the agreement was easy,” Hannigan said. “Implementing it was the difficult part.”

One question that has been raised during his visit is how much transparency is possible in peace negotiations. The MOA-AD collapsed because stakeholders felt the government had tried to pull a fast one on them, and the peace panel was scored for its secrecy.

But transparency can be “quite difficult” in practice, Hannigan said. “It allows people who are against (the peace process) at any point to shoot it down.”

The peace agreement in Northern Ireland was hammered out behind closed doors, but the final product was published immediately. This was followed by a campaign that lasted several months for its approval in a referendum. Copies of the agreement was sent to every household.

Hannigan emphasized that the issues included in the peace agreement had been the subjects of extensive public debate before the pact was finalized, which was why there was no feeling among the stakeholders that their trust had been betrayed by the negotiators.

He also acknowledged the role played by the international community in pressing the warring parties to come to an agreement. Bill Clinton, at the time the US president, worked closely with Blair. Support came from countries including Canada, Finland and South Africa.

It also helped, Hannigan acknowledged, that Northern Ireland had become prosperous and the Irish people were tired of violence.

“There was a real weariness of the war,” he said, “but that in itself was not enough to bring a deal around… Lots of things came together at the same time with a bit of luck and a bit of time.”

The success of a peace process, he said, could depend on people with the will and sincerity: “People wanting to seize the moment and make a bit of history. They have to take big risks. It takes a lot of guts.”