Too close to predict

Thanks to the quantum leap in communications technology, most of the entire human kind can now view the electoral campaigns for the presidency of USA, the world’s leading superpower. Right in the receiving rooms of countries far from America, peoples around the world are made to understand the divergence of the approaches of Sen. John McCain (Republican) and Sen. Barack Obama (Democrat) to issues they deem important to the hearts and minds of voting Americans. And we also see how each of them assails, sometimes ridicules, the other on a given proposition.

Towards the last remaining days of the election period, the atmosphere is electrifying. It is, to be sure, felt more intensely on the ground than viewed from a distance. Rubbing elbows with the voters themselves and, whenever possible, hearing their views gives one the personal impression that the presidential derby is different this year than it was four years ago and the contest is too close to predict.

Yesterday, the very day after I hit Stockton, California, I attended a social gathering. Numbering a little less than 100, it was not a very big crowd. But to me, it was a great function because people coming from a cross section of their community came. There were successful professional practitioners in our midst as there were businessmen. Some responsible office workers came together with ordinary hands.

Even if I was hindered by my being a foreigner here because of which, I could not ask the questions I wanted to shoot, I truly had the opportunity to listen to views directly from the horses’ mouths, the American voters themselves. That, my gracious host, knowing my interest in politics, made sure of, as he hopped from table to table, tagging me along.

There was this lawyer, whom I first met in 2005 in his gated suburban villa. I thought that his being an academician gave profundity to his societal concerns in environment and urban planning. And, not being schooled in his Jewish background, I had a difficult time following his thought then. In the function the other day, I was glad to see him again. After we exchanged pleasantries, he told me he already availed of that unique process of voting ahead of election day. When he gave me the clearance to ask him whom he voted for, Obama was his answer. The reason this lawyer gave when I pressed for a reason did not convince me. He claimed that McCain’s getting a Palin for a vice president made him go for the Democrat!

Another white American, a practicing accountant, gave me a different presentation. He is yet to vote. In a manner that I would not be misunderstood for anything, I asked him to assess the chances of the candidates. His initial words were “very interesting”, something very vague, at best. But a deeper discourse revealed what he would not want to come out into the open with. Forecasting that the Democrats would be surprised by the eventual turn of events, he hinted that McCain was gong to be his man.

These two gentlemen exemplified what I gathered from the rest of my private talks with some other persons in that gathering. Even the Pinoys I talked with changed my previous perception. Before I left for this brief sojourn, I thought they were all out for someone whose dark skin would prove that anyone, regardless of his color, could be an American president. That would be a highly emotional issue demanding a thoroughly biased voting. To my surprise, the Fil-Ams I had the chance to exchange ideas with were split down the line. From that gathering I could not really tell who had the advantage.

That many Americans think that Sen. Obama has taken an early slight lead, is grudgingly admitted but some other sectors of the American voting public seem confident that their belated punch can spell the victory of Sen. McCain. The good thing is that unlike Philippine elections where the results come only after an eternity, we shall know the new American president within hours after they close the polls.