It didn’t happen in 1997, when Fidel Ramos had a far less serious credibility problem than the present administration.
It isn’t going to happen now. The Catholic Church is happily flexing its muscles again, this time against a complex political exercise, and all the anti-Arroyo forces are as usual clinging to its coattails. This brief dalliance will last only until the Church reiterates its continuing support for its most prominent devotee, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.
El Shaddai and Iglesia ni Cristo are only too happy to be depicted as major power blocs in this country; it will give them more bargaining power next time they ask for a behest loan or the appointment of their members to key government positions.
Senators will never agree to a move that will abolish their chamber and their pork barrel of P200 million each a year. The silliest comment I have heard about the constituent assembly came from a senator who said congressmen pushing the effort were motivated chiefly by personal interest. Really, what other motivation is there for politicians in this country? Senators are refusing to go along with the shift to a parliamentary system chiefly for self-preservation.
And if Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo understands self-preservation — which she does — she will never support Charter change as envisioned by Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr., which will require her to share power until 2010 during the transition to a full parliamentary system.
De Venecia’s power-sharing scheme could have actually enjoyed some degree of public support last year, when Filipinos were trying to find a way out of the "Hello, Garci" vote-rigging controversy and pondering a graceful exit for the embattled President.
But the President, with a lot of help from De Venecia’s chamber, which threw out the first impeachment complaint against her and the second one this year, has weathered the worst of the storm. Why should she want to share power with anyone at this time?
This is the reason for the mixed signals coming from different Malacañang officials on the President’s stand on Charter change.
And this is one reason the con-ass train is certain to be derailed. Several people have told De Venecia that he is simply being humored by Malacañang. You can tell that he knows it, too, but is banking on other groups to support him. That support, as he is seeing now, is not forthcoming.
President Arroyo is safely ensconced at Malacañang. She might truly be for Charter change, but her more accurate sentiment on Cha-cha, as indicated by her trade secretary Peter Favila, is, "Call me when you get to the economic amendments."
But this is what happens in almost every effort to change the system in this country. The effort will require political support. The politicians will dutifully take a look and ponder what’s in it for them. And then the effort will be hijacked by politics.
Now we are again seeing strange bedfellows marching together, with the Church mainly against con-ass and the rest against the Arroyo administration.
There is a legitimate constitutional question here that should have been resolved by the Supreme Court — the one institution that is still functioning properly in our weak democracy.
Taking to the streets is fine when all other avenues for seeking redress have been exhausted. But we still have the SC, which yesterday threw out the second motion for reconsideration of its decision junking the use of a people’s initiative to change the Constitution and shift to a parliamentary system.
Being too lazy and impatient to wait even a few days for a court ruling, we prefer the quicker, more dramatic, headline-grabbing though messier way of ending the latest con-ass effort: we resort to shouting, name-calling and threatening to march during the ASEAN summit.
I say "latest" effort because con-ass is bound to be tried again, until that gray area in the Constitution is clarified — not in prayer rallies but by the Supreme Court.
The status quo is preserved everywhere. No lifting of economic restrictions means local big business and old money are safe.
Religious groups will continue to dictate national policy. The Roman Catholic Church is in turmoil everywhere except in this country.
The Senate is safe. After the elections in May 2007, taxpayers are bound to bankroll the expenses and pork barrel of the 12 senators with three more years in their term, plus another son of Joseph Estrada, coup pals Gregorio Honasan and Antonio Trillanes, and politicians who know how to hurl insults in a shrill voice when the TV cameras start rolling.
Some of our bishops should enter politics. One of them has just set back efforts to insulate the military from politics, by calling on soldiers to join him in his march.
But then the bishop was probably simply speeding up the reversal of all the reforms that Avelino Cruz had implemented during his two years as defense chief. Once Hermogenes Ebdane Jr. is installed as replacement – when Malacañang thinks no one is looking, about a month from now – it will all be downhill from there.
This is the fate of reforms in this country: one step forward, two steps back. We suffer from arrested development, and we aren’t even worried about it.
The most memorable insult I have encountered about our country comes from a foreign journalist, who wrote that ours is a nation in a hurry to go nowhere.
A prominent foreign investor who has lived here for decades was kinder, telling me last year that change happens in the Philippines, except it happens very slowly.
The businessman is one of many who have been pushing for the lifting of restrictions on foreign investments as well as calling for better infrastructure, the rule of law and a more predictable investment environment.
Lifting several of those restrictions will require amending the Constitution. This isn’t going to happen in the near future. Better infrastructure? The major ones eventually become bogged down in corruption scandals and litigation. A predictable investment environment? What are people here in power for except to bend the rules and change investment requirements to suit their cronies?
As for the rule of law, while the Supreme Court is functioning, it’s mostly the law of the jungle that prevails.