The secret promise of No-El again

A telltale sign that a factory is about to retrench workers is a sudden intensity of nonessential work, in denial that something’s amiss. The Lakas-Kampi coalition, forecast to stumble in the 2007 congressional election, is ignoring the warnings. Defeat in the Supreme Court of its favored People’s Initiative for parliamentary form has crushed its image of might. The obvious task at hand is to restore the members’ confidence and gird for the campaign ahead. Instead, leaders of the two parties are still pushing for parliamentary via a constituent assembly that has long run out of time.

Perhaps the leaders know it’s a futile effort. One day those in the House of Representatives concede that, with only seven of 23 senators in favor, a constituent assembly can never convene. The next day it’s those in Malacañang who are pleading that congressmen do their best get things moving before the Dec. 21 Christmas break. In the end they all moan about the impossibility of recruiting at least five more senators, for a majority, to go along with the bulk of congressmen.

On the other hand, the belated push for constituent assembly may all be a ruse. Perhaps Lakas-Kampi leaders already have drawn up a senatorial lineup, but are keeping it secret till after the holidays to avoid extortionate gift solicitors. If they know what’s good for them, they would have counted by now who among their congressmen-members have good chances of reelection, and whom to field in lieu of last-termers. They have to bag two-thirds, or 157, of the 236 seats, for a comfortable hold on power. The opposition has sworn to try to impeach President Gloria Arroyo, the chair of both Lakas and Kampi, every July opening of Congress till her term ends in 2010. In response, the coalition, to keep its highest leader in office, must prevent the foes from gaining 79 House seats to send an impeachment rap straight to the Senate for trial. Lakas-Kampi leaders must have figured it all out already.

Assuming it convenes today, a constituent assembly would take at least a month to tackle just one constitutional amendment: parliamentary. By then, the country would be in the holiday mood. A plebiscite can be set for Feb. 2007, which means devoting the whole of Jan. to a campaign to explain the advantages of the switch from presidential form. The timetables are too tight. No politician would operate under such offs.

Yet the Lakas-Kampi may be banking on the subliminal promise of No-El – no election in 2007 – to make a constituent assembly happen. The sales pitch is that the present members of the Senate and House will sit in the new parliament, which would need a period of political concord, so elections must be postponed till further notice. It seems to be working. The constitutional amendments proposed by Rep. Constantino Jaraula – parliamentary, federal, economic liberalization – did not entice followers at first, until the provision on the holding of the May 2007 election was rewritten into vagueness. A version authored by Rep. Prospero Pichay, only for parliamentary, instantly gained more adherents by explicitly stating that elections would be moved to Dec. 2007. Re-electionists, whether in Congress or local posts, would always want a free stay in power.

Still, it is too late to push for constituent assembly. Not even the immoral come-on of No-El appears able to rouse the necessary numbers from senators and congressmen. With most senators unwilling to join, Lakas-Kampi congressmen are saying they will go it alone. But that will mean raising the issue before the Supreme Court, where they risk losing again.

Even if enough senators go along, and they vote for parliamentary but also scrap the 2007 election, there’s still a plebiscite to contend with. Voters in surveys may prefer a parliamentary switch by a slim majority, but they also overwhelmingly disfavor No-El. A plebiscite would likely reject any product of a constituent assembly that scraps the fiesta of an election.

Lakas-Kampi may claim to have most governors, mayors and other local officials as members – who will campaign to win a plebiscite. But that’s no consolation. For every sitting Lakas or Kampi official, there are at least two contenders who will campaign against No-El.

And so in the end, the constituent assembly is dead.

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Distracted as it is by the daydream of constituent assembly, Lakas-Kampi is not about to lose by default. Going in its favor is the opposition’s disunity. The ruling coalition may be taking too long to prepare for election battles, but its foes are so weak they cannot inspire hope.

The Nacionalista Party, for one, has declared readiness to ally with any group, pro-administration or otherwise. It’s an unwitting show of weakness, but the NP leaders don’t mind. The offer came after jailed ex-president Joseph Estrada invited the NP to join an opposition coalition whose only aim apparently is to save him from plunder conviction. The NP just had to find a way to explain itself, considering that its president, Manuel Villar, was the Speaker in 2000 that impeached Estrada.

The Liberal Party is split into pro- and anti-administration. The latter faction is more vocal, but that does not give it strength. Faction head Sen. Franklin Drilon had asked the Comelec to resolve his leadership fight with Manila Mayor Lito Atienza. The poll body ruled that he was the LP chief all right and that Atienza had usurped the position, but that his term was up just the same so party elections must be held Nov. 13 for new officers. Drilon has refused to accept the verdict he himself asked for, and the continuing split dims the LP’s 2007 poll chances.

Laban too is still split, from the 2004 presidential election, between the factions of Sen. Edgardo Angara and Sen. Panfilo Lacson. Differences between Angara and Lacson’s patrons, the brothers Manuel and Rep. Ronaldo Zamora, are too deep to reconcile.

The other opposition parties, Aksyon Demokratiko, PDP-Laban, and Partido ng Masang Pilipino, are faltering. Members naturally leave when they see few of their ranks making it to office.

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