Yes to Cha-Cha gaining ground

Filipinos favor regional autonomy and more foreign share in utilities. Parliamentary is okay for them, but only if bicameral. And they sure could use more instruction on the Constitution. These are among the findings of Social Weather Stations from 14 polls over 20 years, presented last week to the Bishops-Businessmen’s Conference. The summary would be handy for advocates of Charter Change – perhaps even for its opponents. Anyone who says he doesn’t trust polls is like a jockey saying he doesn’t believe in horses.

Familiarity with issues is a must in any debate. Yet three out of four citizens know little or nothing at all about the Constitution. Figures hardly changed in three years. Those with extensive or sufficient knowledge were only 24 percent in May 2002, still 24 in Nov. 2002, 40 in June 2003, but back down to 27 in May 2005. Those with little or no knowledge were 76, 75, 60, and 73 percent in the same survey periods.

No wonder, when asked if the Charter needed changing, most said no: 59 versus 40 percent yes in Sept. 1992, 77:23 in Mar. 1999, 86:14 in June 1999, 79:21 in Nov. 2002, 80:20 in June 2003, and 70:30 in May 2005. If you don’t know it ain’t broke, why fix it.

Notably though unstated in the SWS summary, more Filipinos say yes to Charter Change whenever the issue is discussed publicly, mainly in the media. The 40-percent yes in Sept. 1992 coincided with loud talk against the 1987 Constitution’s economic restrictions. Nobody could do anything about it then, for the Constitution allows amending or revising only after ten years, that is, starting 1997. On that tenth year, the Pirma Movement gathered a much-ballyhooed three million signatures for term lifting for the President. But the SWS did not present any summary for that period either. The June 1999 poll came with a Preparatory Commission on Constitutional Reform. The body’s superb study on freeing the economy notwithstanding, there was not much press coverage; hence, 86 percent saying no to Charter Change.

The 70:30 ratio of no versus yes in May 2005 changed dramatically after three months. But again the SWS made no mention of its survey in Aug 26-Sept. 25, 2005, in which the statement was posed: "Now is a good time to make changes in the Constitution." Only 26 percent strongly or somewhat disagreed, versus 43 percent who strongly or somewhat agreed; 27 percent were undecided. Aug-Sept. was the period when the formation of a Consultative Commission was being contemplated, with much press coverage. The conclusion can be formed: the more public discussion, the more people favor Charter Change.

Back to last week’s SWS digest, some of the suggested changes did not need Constitutional amending: commodity prices, land reform, human rights, value-added taxes. Others did center on drastic reforms that a new Charter can bring: new breed of persons in government, parliament-federal form of government, curbs to corruption.

Several surveys were on presidential versus parliamentary system. On electing a President at large, 97 and 91 percent said yes in Sept. 1992 and Dec. 1993; only 3 and 9 percent in the same surveys okayed selection by legislators from among themselves. But in Dec. 2005, there was split opinion: 34 percent for direct election, 32 for selection by legislators, with 30 percent undecided. The SWS conclusion: the parliamentary idea of fusing the legislative and executive branches has a "fighting chance".

A bicameral legislature was favored in the past two decades, though. On having senators elected at large and congressmen by districts, so that both chambers must pass any law, 58 percent said yes in Oct. 1986, 70 in Dec. 1993, 58 in Apr. 1994, and 63 in Aug. 1994. Of having only one body of legislators elected by district or province, only 40, 30, 41 and 36 percent assented in the same polls. The SWS had not figures for this decade.

Three digests focused on President Gloria Arroyo. In a Dec. 2005 poll, a 43-percent "plurality" opposed her becoming Prime Minister in a switch to parliamentary form; 24 percent approved; 28 percent were undecided. In the same poll, 54 percent wanted Charter Change to cut short her term; 20 percent were opposed; 23 percent were undecided. Fifty-four percent also wanted such change to make her step down in 2005, 30 percent in 2006, 8 in 2007, 0.7 in 2008, and 0.5 percent in 2009. Letting past or present Presidents become Prime Minister was consistently unpopular. Against it were 55 percent in Aug. 2004, 64 in May 2005, 53 in Aug. 2005, and 43 percent in Dec. 2005. Only 42, 34, 45, and 24 percent approved in the same periods.

   Advocates of freer economy are on a roll. An Oct. 1999 survey posed the matter of lifting foreign-equity limits in utilities and natural resources. Forty-four percent disagreed and 28 percent agreed for telephone firms, 46:28 in electricity generation, 46:27 in water services, and 49:24 in natural resource companies. A reversal was noted in Dec. 2005 when SWS asked about lifting economic restrictions on foreigners, particularly in owning land, mining, and public utilities. This time 41 percent approved and 22 percent disapproved.

Pluralities also favor regional governments as precursor of a federal structure. Saying it was a good idea were 42 percent in Nov. 2002, 50 in June 2003, 37 in May 2005, 39 in Aug. 2005, and 38 percent in Dec. 2005. "Not a good idea," said 22, 10, 28, 20, and 16 percent in the same poll cycles. Federalists must not sit on their laurels though. Their foes loudly have been warning about dismembering the Republic through greater autonomy from central authority. This may explains in part the big number of undecided respondents: 36 percent in Nov. 2002, 40 in June 2003, 34 in May 2004, 40 in Aug. 2005, and 46 percent in Dec. 2005.

* * *

E-mail: [email protected]