Forget the escapees. Worry about the fallout

Philippine security officials are scrambling in two directions in the aftermath of the recent escape from military detention of four of the so-called Oakwood mutineers, a group of disgruntled junior officers who vainly tried to topple President Arroyo nearly three years ago.

In one direction, they are scrambling to recapture the escapees, and a nationwide manhunt has been launched. In another direction, they are scrambling, red faces and all, to contain the fallout.

By the looks of it, it is the latter direction that will prove to be more difficult to pursue. Much of the containment efforts will have to center on answering one important question: How on earth could high-risk detainees escape from a high-security military camp?

While every effort (supposedly) is being done to recapture the escapees, there is really no physical or tactical benefit that can be derived from their recapture. The escapees are just four specks of dust in the political skin of this increasingly soiled country.

Unless there is some cataclysmic shift in loyalties in key military positions, any fresh adherents that the four escaped mutineers can enlist to their misguided cause will be few and insignificant.

In this country that is as fragmented politically as it is geographically, the lack of any groundswell of military support will always prove to be the bane of any military adventurism by just as fragmented groups.

Right now, President Arroyo has been very accommodating to generals and other military officers who hold key or very sensitive positions. Indeed, her clinging to this tack is the single greatest hindrance to any plans by the opposition to topple her.

For while everything else is crumbling or on the verge of doing so outside in the larger world of Philippine life, things in the military establishment are still, by and large, strictly regimented in accordance with time-honored rules on discipline and chain of command.

To be sure, there is restiveness in the military. Grumblings are beginning to come out more frequently in the open. The Oakwood mutiny was, in geophysical terms, a fissure that let out steam.

But a general's command is still a general's command in a world where one is taught to obey first before complaining. The changing times may allow some doubt to creep in, in that aspect but we do not believe in a different outcome in the end. At least not yet.

So, the escape of four detained mutineers is not as much as a problem compared with the fallout from the escape. So, back to that nagging question: How on earth could high-risk detainees escape from a high-risk military camp?

It would have been tempting to repair to that age-old ploy of passing the blame to tough luck, you know, like saying these things happen. But that would only be feasible if this was the first time such an escape happened.

But for God's sake this was the nth time the Philippines has been embarrassed before the whole world. Our country has become very notorious as having the most porous jails, prisons and detention centers.

It appears that having a detention center inside a military or police camp does not make much difference. We have racked up quite a litany of instances where people who are not supposed to escape still managed to escape from military and police camps or headquarters.

Normally, the answer would have been that nobody is supposed to escape under such circumstances. The fact that they do brings people to the inevitable conclusion that such escapes have the cooperation and support of insiders.