Too long a dark tunnel

Perhaps reinvigorated by the brief respite from political and economic turmoil afforded by her recent trip to the United States, President Arroyo said she is ready to move on, again indicating a resolve to finish her term in 2010.

That 2010 is a good five years away makes that resolve ( some would call it bravado, others a boast ) seem hollow in light of the many still unresolved businesses that either await her action or the opportunity to hound her again.

If, in just the first year since her questioned election, the ratings of President Arroyo have plummeted to negative levels, we doubt very much if she can even last a year or two more in office, much less finish the remaining five years of her term.

I don't know if, to shore up her resolve, the president has actually done her homework and made preparations on how to survive, ticking off each and every potential threat to her rule and her responses to them, as well as the measure of their expected success.

I have reason to suspect, however, that she has not, or at least not to a point where she can be comfortable. Indeed, the so-called " Garci Tapes " that led to the filing of impeachment complaints against her completely caught her off guard.

That her conversations were allegedly wiretapped illegally by elements within her own intelligence establishment would show how vulnerable she is to destabilizing political attacks. Even at this very moment, there could be forces plotting their next move to force her downfall.

So, either the president consolidates her forces and plots a safer course through stormy seas with a mind to specific details about survival, her best option would be to actually start preparing for a graceful exit.

Not that we relish the prospect of either her ouster or resignation as we still believe that, given the kind of rivals she had in the 2004 elections, she was the true choice of the greater majority of the discerning and intelligent Filipino voters.

That is, of course, unless this greater majority of Filipino voters is willing to be branded as undiscerning and unintelligent, no more than a salivating pack of star-struck daydreamers who would rather pawn their future in favor of a movie star.

But even if we believe President Arroyo was the true winner in the 2004 elections, we just as firmly believe that she could not survive another five years of ceaseless intrigues that are likely to succeed in further undermining her hold on power.

At the moment, the only thing that is keeping her in power is the continued neutrality of the armed forces. It would have been nice to say military support, but given the extent to which the military is capable of engaging in misadventures, there is no qualifying that terminology.

So, okay, the military has remained neutral, testing the waters or sniffing the air for hints as to whence the whiff of bacon cometh. It is a posture too delicate to draw comfort or inspiration from.

Maybe such neutrality is good for a year or two. Beyond that, the military will become sufficiently agitated by a variety of temptations that it will eventually be forced to move. Of course, it can still move in favor of President Arroyo. Or it may go the opposite direction.

Whatever direction the military will eventually take, it will shake a lot of things up, some good but perhaps mostly bad. It will be a move not meant to be relished, even if the outcome may favor constitutional authority.

For there is something about the involvement of the military in purely political affairs that is not unlike bearing illegitimate children. Even if President Arroyo benefits from military support, she will become a pawn instead of a duly-elected leader.

In the end, her tenure will be just as tenuous as ever. Indeed, we can see no clear blue sky up ahead for the president. Instead we see a dark tunnel that is too long it may be better if she starts groping around for an exit.