Worst for GMA may be over

Mr. Rigoberto Tiglao, President GMA's chief of the Presidential Management Staff and resident ideologue, told a meeting in La Salle a few days ago that the worst is over for the president. I agree to a large extent.

Over at Congress, the opposition cannot muster the numbers, about 79 signatures, to impeach the president. The ruling party has a core of loyal followers supporting the president. While for the other parties, it seems that they are not completely united in ousting the president.

And even if the opposition can get the minimum 79 votes, its not still a finished question. The Committee on Justice, headed by Rep. Simeon Datumanong, will still have to investigate the charges against the president. And then, the committee will render a report that would be discussed in the House, meeting as a whole.

All this process gives the president time to maneuver and consolidate her forces and perfect her tactics. Right now, the maneuvering in the House seem to be in favor of the administration group because it has resources to dispense with. As it is, it is most likely that the number of those who signed the impeachment would be decreased, not increased.

On the area of rallies and people power, the opposition has lost momentum. After the 50,000 rally during the state of the nation, it seems that it would take time to mobilize again. The most glaring indicator of this is my friend Linggoy Alcuaz, the professional destabilizer who has taken a leave of absence from the rallies. When I asked him the other day when is the next rally, he surprisingly (and perhaps jokingly) told me that the president may stay up to 2010!

The only real danger to the president is the continued assault on her reputation. Right now, some quarters are saying that the president witnessed the payoff of some Comelec officials before the last elections. The stories are all hearsay, but they can every well destroy her image.

I suppose the assault on her persona will continue. And probably her rating will go down, according to the Pulse Asia Survey. But she will continue to be there. As opposition member Edicio dela Torre told the recent La Salle conference, there is no relationship between popularity or even political legitimacy and the holding of political power. What this means is that President GMA will continue to rule despite the so-called drop in ratings.

The larger question really now is what will come first? Is it impeachment or charter change. With the roadblocks being set to delay or defeat the impeachment, the betting is that charter change may be the first to happen between now and December.

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Senate President Drilon still at the helm

It seems that President GMA and Senate Franklin Drilon are having a modus vivendi, despite the breakaway of Drilon's Liberal Party from the ruling coalition. Everything is professional, as we have seen in how Drilon and President GMA behaved during the SONA.

The way they looked at each other and shook hands, it is as if nothing happened between them politically. If Drilon did not clap his hands at all at any time during the speech, it is because he disagrees with the president's proposal on charter change.

If the administration is thinking of ousting Drilon from the Senate presidency, forget it. The man is in command of the numbers there. "Nobody has 13 votes in the Senate," Drilon said to me, during one birthday celebration over the weekend. That is why, according to him, nobody is planning to challenge him. Miriam Defensor Santiago, a potential rival of Drilon, has confessed that she does not have the temperament to lead the Senate.