Why GMA continues to be president

This is the big problem for the crisis managers in the Palace -how to calm down a nation that is now undergoing a political crisis. Talking to the crisis managers in the Palace, the likes of political advisers Gabriel Claudio and PMS chief Rigoberto Tiglao, one gets the impression that the whole Palace is looking for ways to appease an agitated nation.

The big posters you see in the streets in Manila are attempts to tell the nation that we should promote business-as-usual. "Yes to Democracy, No to Junta" or "Trabaho, hindi gulo" are the slogans placed in various strategic places and they all aim to discourage people from joining mass actions. Leave politics to the politicians, the message seems to say.

These slogans perhaps may have succeeded in somewhat reducing the level of protest in the streets of Manila. Notice that in the last rally in the Makati business district, only about 40,000 people attended contrary to expectations by the organizers. And most of the participants came from the organized sectors. Another factor for the low turn-out was the continued lack of unity between the Makati businessmen and the FPJ forces.

There are a number of reasons why the level of protest had not reached EDSA 1 and EDSA 2 proportions:

One is that every important group that could be mobilized against GMA seems to be divided. For one, the religious groups are divided. The CBCP and the Philippine Evangelical Movement are for GMA, while the NCCP and Association of Major Religious Superiors are for the resignation of the president. Brother Eddie's call for resignation on behalf of Jesus is Lord Fellowship is balanced by the Brother Mike Velarde's continued support for GMA in the name of El Shaddai.

Two, the business associations are sharply divided. Initially, the leaders of the Makati Business Club came out calling for resignation. But then, a splinter group of businessmen came out with paid ads, saying that the leaders of the MBC did not consult the membership. As of the moment, the MBC has opted to keep silent on political questions.

The president is benefiting from the neutrality of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. With that announcement from the leadership of the AFP that it was not taking sides, the rebellious young officers were deprived of an issue to charge the brass with political intervention and partisanship. You notice that there is semblance of military movement in the ranks of the soldiers.

There is no viable alternative to the president, and this perception is helping her very much. While Vice President Noli de Castro is seen as a constitutional successor (by the way, he is behaving very well during this crisis -not rocking the boat and always being supportive of the president), many forces think that he would not be able to solve the problems of the people and the nation.

There are also proposals for the establishment of a "revolutionary transition government" whose shape is not yet clear. But this scenario is favored by progressives like former UP president Francisco Nemenzo. While the phrase escapes the scare effect of a junta, it still has yet accepted as a talking point in negotiations among the power brokers.

And then, there is always the problem of disunity within the opposition ranks. In the last Makati rally, some people started to speculate that finally, Susan Roces may be together in one stage with former president Corazon Aquino. But this did not happen and it would take some time before it could happen. This is the situation that favors against GMA.

Even the Liberal Party, by the way, is divided. In an interview, Senate President Drilon told me that the vote to call for GMA's resignation was party vote. But it is getting clear that the Liberal Party may split into two because of the resignation call vote.

Can we envision a situation where GMA can recover and rule in the normal way? My answer is; it's hard to tell. We are not sure whether the groups that have come out against the president can be persuaded to give her another chance. That is perhaps the reason why former president Fidel V. Ramos and Speaker Jose de Venecia are proposing to cut short her term through a constitutional way.

The JDV and FVR proposal says Congress will convene a constituent assembly before December, shift to a parliamentary through charter change, and presto, we have a different structure led by the prime minister!

Everything is in a limbo until July 25, the day the president will deliver the state of the nation address. If the president accepts the FVR and JDV proposal, then the struggle for resignation will take a different course.