Fortunately not all in the Opposition think that way. Rep. Ronaldo Zamora, heading a Minority count, is ready to muster 30 congressmen to endorse an impeachment complaint. A humbler Rep. Joey Salceda, of the Majority, admits more: the case is only six signatures shy of the needed 79 to be sent straight to the Senate for trial.
Salceda’s count hews close to mine (Gotcha, 13 July). His breakdown: 28 original Minority members, 21 Liberal Party men who have just bolted the Administration, 10 Leftists who desire to bring down any government, 10 Nacionalista Party members, four defectors from Ms Arroyo’s loyalist Kampi (Roilo Golez, Dodot Jaworski, Edmund Reyes, Clavel Martinez). Speaker Jose de Venecia’s Lakas no less had culled the figures, reveals Salceda, a close adviser of Ms Arroyo: "We are bleeding …we might run out of blood, and I’m not bluffing the Opposition."
The fear is not unfounded. At the once Arroyo-controlled Senate now sits a majority in wait to oust her. The Opposition Minority of 11 has grown to 15 with the departure of LP senators from the Administration Majority. Since her allies have been insisting on the Constitutional process and Ms Arroyo herself has taunted the Opposition to take its case to Congress, they may have painted themselves to a corner. Ms Arroyo must now prepare a credible defense from charges of betraying public trust in her family’s link to jueteng payolas and improper phone calls to her Comelec nominee at the height of the 2004 vote canvassing.
In the meantime, Opposition politicians are partnering with the Left to mount a copycat EDSA-Dos. They believe they can bring down Ms Arroyo with shouts by 40,000 protesters, the way throngs of half a million did to Joseph Estrada. Detachments of civil society and businessmen, with former President Cory Aquino, are pushing separate ouster plots. In turn Ms Arroyo’s allies are organizing a show of force tomorrow at the Luneta. They would do well to humbly review history in order to be more creative.
Of note are the events that led to Estrada’s impeachment in Oct. 2000, his attempts to contain the political damage, and his fall in Jan. 2001. Before then, Estrada’s all-night mahjong and drinking sprees already were hitting the headlines, along with illicit crony deals using SSS and GSIS moneys. Things came to a boil when erstwhile gambling buddy, Gov. Luis Singson, sensed an ambush before dawn of Oct. 4, and proceeded to spill the beans on Estrada’s jueteng payolas and theft of tobacco taxes. The next day then-Senate Minority head Tito Guingona of Lakas delivered an "I Accuse" speech detailing Estrada’s crimes. Party mate Sonny Alvarez of the House Minority assembled a legal team to draft an impeachment rap.
Filing of the complaint was delayed many times. Initially the House Minority was uneasy, calculating the steep odds in the Estrada-controlled justice committee. The lawyers were having a hard time securing evidence. Meanwhile, the Senate opened an inquiry on Guingona’s accusations.
On Oct. 11 Singson testified that Estrada had received P530 million in jueteng payoffs and P130 million in tax theft. That night Cardinal Jaime Sin called on Estrada to step down. The next day then-Vice President Gloria Arroyo resigned from the Cabinet.
After five postponements, the impeachment complaint finally was filed on Oct. 18. Signing as complainants were Reps. Alvarez, Boy Herrera and Mike Defensor, and 25 private citizens. Thirty-eight Minority and party-list members endorsed it. As expected, the justice committee sought to quash the case employing numbers. Defensor mobilized the Spice Boys of young congressmen in an uphill battle for 74 signatures to send the case to the Senate.
On Oct. 23 anti-Estrada forces declared a nationwide campaign for his resignation. Tens of thousands began daily protest marches two days later. On Nov. 2 then-Speaker Manny Villar bolted the Majority coalition, bringing along 14 allies to endorse the complaint and push the signatories to 89, more than the required number to start a Senate trial. At dusk Estrada offered to hold a referendum on whether he should stay in office.
The marches continued. On Nov. 11 Estrada held a prayer rally at the Rizal Park to show off his force; more than a million attended. Two days later anti-Estrada rallies intensified in the Visayas and Mindanao.
Estrada’s impeachment trial began on Dec. 7. The opening evidence, gathered from painstaking research led by Rep. Joker Arroyo, consisted of Estrada’s alias Jose Velarde signatures in a secret bank account. A series of witnesses detailed the delivery of jueteng payoffs to Estrada’s home and Malacañang quarters. On Dec. 18 bankers Clarita Ocampo and Manuel Surato swore that Estrada had signed as Velarde in a P420-million account in their presence.
The Senate resumed hearings after the Christmas break, with debates on whether to accept new damning evidence from the bank. On Jan. 16 the senators voted 11-10 to trash the crucial papers. The congressmen-prosecutors walked out. One pro-Estrada senator did an infamous jig that sent hundreds of thousands of insulted citizens marching to EDSA and staying there until Estrada fled Malacañang on Jan. 21.
The lessons from history consist of humble gathering of signatures and witnesses and evidence and supporters.