An Asian cold war?

In an ideal world, China and Japan will realize how economically interdependent they have become, how peace has made both countries achieve remarkable progress since the last war, and how it is in the interest of both countries to maintain healthy cooperation.

This part of the world can then reap the fruits of peaceful co-existence between its two economic giants, regional cooperation will be fostered and everyone will live happily ever after.

It’s an imperfect world, however, and Beijing and Tokyo are constantly snarling at each other. Smaller players in the region are increasingly wondering if they should get out of the way, take sides and play one against the other, or stand between the two and act as referee.

Most of the factors at play can be summed up in two words – national pride – in what some quarters now fear is shaping up into an Asian cold war.

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Today those fears may be stoked as the region braces for more anti-Japanese protests in China. The protests are supposed to commemorate the student demonstrations that erupted in Beijing on May 4, 1919 against the Treaty of Versailles, which awarded German concessions in China to Japan at the end of World War I. But today’s mass actions are expected to be a continuation of recent ones against the Japanese. Two issues triggered the latest protests: a whitewash of Japanese wartime atrocities in their high school textbooks, and Japan’s bid for a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council where China is a member. The UN, says Japan’s prime minister, should "reflect the realities of today’s world."

Japan warned its citizens against traveling to China during the May Day holidays until today. Since the protests erupted, Hong Kong has already felt a drop in Japanese tourist arrivals.

The significance of the May Fourth Movement, however, is surely not lost on the current Chinese leadership. Such protests can quickly turn against a repressive government.

So today we might see more muted mass actions, if at all. Beijing cannot risk an escalation of freedom of expression across the land, or, for that matter, the spread of almost any other kind of freedom at all, except perhaps the freedom to get rich. And even then, there are limits to the pursuit of wealth in China.

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A way of life where dissent is stifled and even brutally crushed should never be overlooked as the Philippines celebrates the "golden age" of bilateral ties with China. Myanmar could get confused. Why is Manila publicly telling Yangon to implement democratic reforms while ignoring similar repressive policies of Beijing?

Chinese President Hu Jintao did raise hopes of better ties with Manila during his visit last week. No country can ignore the potentials of the huge Chinese economy, and the Philippines has everything to gain by fostering closer trade ties with China.

Among other things, the two countries agreed to undertake joint oil exploration in the South China Sea, which should bring tension a few notches down in disputed waters. Hu also promised military assistance to the Philippines.

Hu, however, fell short of promising to dismantle Chinese structures on Mischief Reef, which is so close to Palawan and so far from China I cannot understand how Beijing can lay claim to it.

As gracious host during the state visit, Philippine officials avoided voicing suspicion that two Filipinos killed recently in Beijing were not victims of muggers but were instead mistaken for Japanese during the recent protests and murdered.

Neither was there mention of the four Filipino fishermen who were stranded at sea recently. A US military plane spotted the fishermen and alerted a Chinese vessel that was in the area. But the Chinese ignored the alert and even switched off their radio. The Americans eventually rescued the fishermen.

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Meanwhile, Japan’s Ambassador to Manila Ryuichiro Yamazaki wants to remind everyone that his country is also keen on "strengthening partnerships" with the Philippines.

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said as much in Jakarta last April 22, in a speech that included what some quarters said was the 22nd top-level Japanese apology for its wartime aggression.

Tokyo is also on a charm offensive. Japanese Defense Minister Yoshinori Ohno was in Manila over the weekend to increase security cooperation. Also in town was a member of the Diet, Hirohiko Nakamura, who said Filipino nurses would be among the first hires when Japan opens its health sector to foreign workers this year.

As in Hu’s visit, contentious issues were not raised with the Japanese guests. No mention of regional fears about nationalism that is growing among members of Japan’s post-war generation, a number of whom occupy positions of power.

These young leaders feel that their country has atoned enough for its wartime record. For over half a century Japan has adhered to its pacifist constitution and concentrated on becoming an economic powerhouse. Having achieved that, Japan has spread its wealth around, and generously; the country is the second biggest contributor to the United Nations and is one of the largest sources of official development assistance around the globe, setting aside 0.7 percent of its gross national income for ODA. In Jakarta, Koizumi committed over $2.5 billion in the next five years for disaster relief and reconstruction efforts in Asia, Africa and other regions. Japan is an advocate of environmental protection and does its share in fighting terrorism. It promotes nuclear non-proliferation, freedom and democracy.

In short, Japan has been a responsible member of the community of nations. It is not surprising that Japan’s post-war generation would want the country to play a global role commensurate with its status. Neither is it surprising that this younger generation would find it unfair to continue being blamed for the nation’s sins of 60 years ago. And neither is it surprising that younger Japanese leaders would want to start handling their own national defense, like any normal country, with a military independent of foreign interference.

Unfortunately, a resurgent Japanese military, no matter how normal its functions, raises alarm bells in Beijing. And alarm in Beijing unfortunately triggers a similar response in Tokyo.

It is tempting to tell Beijing and Tokyo, "Oh, grow up." But geopolitics is never that simple.