There’s a price to pay for GMA’s candor

Of course, La Presidenta told the truth when she declared our country is in "fiscal crisis". Self-candor is the beginning of wisdom.

But should the Chief Executive of the country have made the announcement "official"? Leaders in battle, the history of wars tells us, must show confidence, strength and even engage in a little deception (when discouraged or find their own energies waning) in order not to demoralize their followers in the press of combat, and hearten their enemies.

GMA, while nobody doubts her courage, chutzpah and most of all her ability to deceive, may have stumbled by openly "admitting" a fiscal crisis.

Immediately the stock market fell, overseas projects planned for the Philippines (the few that remained) were cancelled, already programmed foreign investment faltered, people and institutions inevitably began hoarding dollars. Now everybody I know in the government is scrambling to do "damage control", trying to explain that "what the President really meant was . . ." Et cetera.

In yesterday’s Financial Times, edited in London but published worldwide, ran the glaring banner headline: "Philippine Finances in Crisis, says President."

Sus, La Emperadora had declared, as quoted, "We are already in the midst of a fiscal crisis and we have to face it squarely – wielding our courage, resourcefulness and solidarity as a nation and people." Brave words, indeed, but they cost us.

The FT, though, ran a pretty picture of La Commander-in-Chief snappily saluting her "new chief of national police", although they did cut the photo of PNP Chief Gen. Edgardo "Egay" Aglipay in half. Was this to signify that Aglipay, who had been due to retire on his next birthday, September 13, had been given an extention of only six months? I’m puzzled why the President extended Aglipay a mere six months, instead of one year. What can a police chief who’s expected to reform the police accomplish anything in just six months? Wayward cops will defy, deceive, and use every strategem to frustrate a Director General who’s got only half a year in the saddle as Top Honcho. They’ll be insubordinate and "wait him out", hoping to make a deal with his replacement.

You don’t give a sheriff or marshal a six-shooter with only three bullets. It doesn’t make sense. It makes even worse sense if this curtailed period of service is meant to appease the "next in line" impatiently awaiting his turn.

Fighting crime, especially crime within the police, is a 24-hour job, and the security and peace of mind of our frightened citizens is not something you compromise just to uphold the silly concept of "seniority" and "it’s-my-turn" which plagues both our police and our military.

Now that she is in the process of selecting the next Armed Forces Chief of Staff, with AFP Chief, General Narciso Abaya, retiring on his next birthday on October 29, the President must also bear in mind how long the next military chief will serve.

A President cannot hope to please everybody. She must do what – in her honest estimation – is right, not what is popular or expedient.

Once, asked to describe the qualities desirable in a politician (in 1965), Britain’s Winston Churchill declared: "The ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and the next year. And to have the ability to explain afterwards why it didn’t happen."

GMA promised earlier this year to tackle the fiscal deficit. Now, surprise, surprise, she’s confessed we’re "in the midst" of it. And she still hasn’t stopped "subsidizing" the price of electricity. No wonder the NAPOCOR’s bankrupt – and we’re broke.

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The Financial Times was not too harsh on GMA though. In its popular Observer column on the editorial page, it had an item entitled, Gloria’s History Lesson Learnt.

The column said: "She may be the Philippine president and the world’s ninth most powerful woman, according to a list published by Forbes magazine, but Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo remains a respectful student at heart.

"When professors at the University of the Philippines School of Economics, where she studied for her doctorate, released a paper warning of an Argentina-like default if the government failed to stop the rapid growth in government debt, Macapagal couldn’t agree more.

"She said the Philippines was already in the midst of a fiscal crisis – even though the report pointed out she had about three years to fix leaky revenues and avert the possible onset of payments difficulties. Any talk comparing the Philippines to Argentina, which defaulted on its debt in 2001, had been met before by vigorous objections from government officials who point out that short-term loans make up a far smaller proportion of Philippine debt.

"But yesterday (Monday), Macapagal strayed from the official line, to the chagrin of Central Bank officials, who had to assure creditors the country wasn’t about to miss debt payments."

That’s the next problem. Will we make those debt payments?

The Asian Wall Street Journal ran yesterday the sanguine headline on page 3, Arroyo Upsets Philippine Markets.

It quoted Finance Secretary Juanita Amatong as saying "the term fiscal crisis shouldn’t be used loosely".

The Journal pointed out that "the Philippines is the lar-gest sovereign borrower in Asia after Japan". In truth, our outstanding external debt stands at $56.7 billion. The Philippines, moreover, has "one of the highest ratios of external debt to gross domestic product in Asia". (According to Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas data, this stood at 71.4 percent at the end of 2003).

Let’s go then! Bite the bullet, as La Presidenta already stated in her SONA, though, alas, the bullet remains – unbitten.

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Former Executive Secretary Alberto Romulo took over his post as Secretary of Foreign Affairs at 8:30 a.m. yesterday in a graceful ceremony, and a subsequent "dialogue" in which he charmed everybody in the Department of Foreign Affairs.

He’s scheduled to fly to the United States on September 22, or thereabouts. Then, he will address the United Nations General Assembly on September 28. As a Senator for 12 years, Bert had been invited to speak at the UN on a number of previous occasions, but last night he told this writer that he’s happy this time that he’ll ascend the podium there, finally, to speak as our Foreign Secretary.

In the course of his remarks at the DFA, Bert revealed that his mother, Asuncion Gatmaitan, comes from Malolos, Bulacan, and is very closely related to our great "Boy General", our hero Gregorio del Pilar, who was our Revolution’s youngest general, aged barely 24, and died at Tirad Pass fighting a delaying action against the American troops pursuing General Emilio Aguinaldo. Del Pilar and his soldiers fought to the last man. The boy General himself, on his white horse, urging his men to fight on, was slain by a sniper’s bullet.

In this light, Bert said he was proud that his mother was also related to "Plaridel" – i.e., the journalist and writer, Marcelo H. del Pilar, who was an uncle of Gregorio.

I’ve invited Secretary Romulo to be our guest of honor and speaker at our Manila Overseas Press Club "Diplomatic Night", on either September 17 or 21, depending on his calendar (just before he leaves for the US). He told me last night he is delighted to accept, but will have to check his schedule. The details will be announced later.

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THE ROVING EYE . . . Former Foreign Affairs Secretary Delia Domingo Albert, who just turned over the "flag" to Secretary Romulo, will be appointed, Bert confirmed, to a very high diplomatic position. He tactfully added that this will be decided between the President and Delia herself. Indeed, Secretary Albert has done an excellent job – and the scuttlebutt is that she may be assigned to . . . oh well, no use trying to make predictions. Being rash in this matter results in egg all over your face . . . Delia will probably not go to Paris, though. This has been "promised" to Ambassador Philippe J. Lhuillier – out of Rome.