From No-El to No-Proc

Jose Cojuangco Jr. had pointed out the constitutional blur as far back as 1987. Winning a seat in the Congress that the Charter had restored, he was brushing up on the provisions when he noticed it: Presidential elections were to be held every six years on the second Monday of May starting 1992. Congress was then to canvass the votes and proclaim the winner. On the following June 30 at high noon, the outgoing President was to hand over power to the new one. The terms of all congressmen and half of the senators also would expire on that day. "But what if Congress fails to declare a winner?" Cojuangco sounded the alarm.

There was no proviso for such happenstance. The only other related line was Sec. 3 of Art. II, Declaration of Principles and State Policies, which holds up the Armed Forces of the Philippines as "protector of the people and the State." It’s a tacit invitation for the military to take over, again with no proviso for how long. That would bring the country back to indefinite martial rule that People Power had brought down, Cojuangco warned.

No one paid heed. The Constitution could not be amended for ten years. The first Congress was in no mood to insert remedies in the law on succession. Despite seven attempted coups d’etat, everybody felt that in the restored post-Marcos democracy, no politicians would be so irresponsible as to allow a return of military control.

None, perhaps, except now. Of late opposition Sen. Tito Sotto has been raving about his party proclaiming Fernando Poe Jr. even before a joint session of the Senate and House of Representatives begins canvassing on Monday. No to-do about that. Poe did proclaim himself on Wednesday, but his own followers know it’s mere bluster. As Malacañang spokesman Ignacio Bunye chortled, only Congress can declare a winner, and anyone who does so by his lonesome risks public ridicule.

But movie actor Poe’s self-congratulation seems to be part of a bigger script. Act 1, perhaps, to establish the succeeding shots. For, Sotto also has been talking about protracting the Congress canvass well beyond June 30. Opposition cries of massive election fraud by the administration’s sitting candidate Gloria Arroyo, though largely unsubstantiated, form part of the unfolding thriller.

Bits of the script were unearthed by National Security Adviser Bert Gonzales two weeks before the May 10 balloting. Had it not been thwarted, he said, a bombing of the Comelec central office in Intramuros would have set the stage for a No-El (no election) plot by retired generals and virulent Arroyo critics. Gonzales couldn’t pinpoint the connection then, but he had parallel intelligence findings that the opposition, if defeated, will discredit the election by inciting street protests to prevent the winner’s proclamation. Another opposition presidential bet was, meanwhile, manufacturing fake certificates of canvass, to be blamed on Malacañang. In the ensuing chaos, No-El would give way to No-Proc (no proclamation), Gonzales warned.

It’s turning out to be No Inaugural, if Sotto’s scenario plays out. Poe, true to script in a two-minute press talk on the morning after the balloting, had cried massive, systematic cheating – while deputized teachers were still counting precinct votes. A lightning rally followed that afternoon in Makati’s financial row, although Poe’s leaders couldn’t decide whether to call it an all-too-early protest, or his premature victory rally, or that of his overall campaign manager who was winning in the city’s mayoralty race. What apparently was planned by a Fat-and-Thin duo of the opposition as the start of a supposed EDSA-4, or an Ayala-1, fizzled out. But the street agitation soon turned into screams of pro-Arroyo trending by the Comelec-accredited Namfrel quick count and the spot reporting of precinct tallies by big television networks and newspapers. Then, retired generals, led by a former AFP chief and an ex-Army head, reportedly began visiting camps in Mindanao, urging military uprisings. And as pickets swarmed the Convention Center where the Comelec started canvassing the senatorial tallies last weekend, fake poll certificates also sprang up in the Senate toilet and the House lobby – all instantly blamed on Malacañang.

It will take more than mobs-for-hire and once-swaggering generals to convince Congress of massive fraud. Evidence must be forwarded, not just shrill claims. Sen. Gringo Honasan, head of Poe’s vote security and former coup leader, had claimed to have formed an army of five million volunteers to watch the 215,386 precincts. With that number, he would have had 23 men watching each precinct balloting and counting. Poe also has two dozen watchers at the Namfrel center. None of the millions, let alone dozens, have come up to say where the cheating or trending was. Taunting the policemen at the Comelec senatorial canvass will not suffice either to provoke a civilian-backed military revolt.

Still, Sotto can pull his trick, before bowing out as two-term senator and returning to Eat Bulaga, where he gained fame as a comedian. He could be counting on a weak Senate leadership for his final act. After all, the administration majority has accommodated the opposition minority many times in the past to run the show – with privilege speeches and committee investigations that produced no results, and once with a circus-like coup for top posts. One last hurrah wouldn’t hurt, even if it leads to No-Inaug and a military junta whose first order surely would be to line up the Senate clowns against the wall.

The Congress canvassing originally was scheduled to begin on June 7. Sensing trouble a-brewing, Senate President Franklin Drilon and House Speaker Jose de Venecia advanced it by two weeks starting May 24. Drilon has said it could last all the way to June 28. De Venecia, from the bigger chamber, forecasts only two weeks. Will Sotto get past them?

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