People are watching

I arrived in Los Angeles on the way to Puerto Rico for the world meeting of our firm. For the usual security precautions the meeting is being held in Puerto Rico, a US territory. The first question I got from the immigration officer at the LAX airport was, "How are the elections in the Philippines?" Obviously the officer has kept abreast with Philippine politics probably because he has many Filipino friends. Interest is high in North America because the general observation of many is that the Philippines has been politically unstable for many years now. There are hopes the elections would be credible so that the system can finally get back on track. One and a half million Filipinos live and work in California and, according to Philippine Embassy estimates, there was a 60 percent turnout of registered voters.

The main concern in Washington regarding the Philippines is for our democratic system to work. The reality is that senior-level US government officials are too preoccupied with the Iraqi prisoner scandal and with the ongoing hearings in the Senate Armed Services Committee. Clearly, the Philippines isn’t on the radar screen as of now. Perhaps only a Philippine Desk Officer of the State Department is monitoring the situation in the Philippines. Washington has been hit by a political firestorm – scandalous digital photos of Iraqi prisoners leaked out to Arab media and to the world. This crisis adversely impacts President Bush’s ratings and may seriously undermine his chances for re-election this November. The grisly beheading of U.S. national Nicholas Berg by masked men in the middle of the week likewise underscored the political vulnerability of the Bush Administration. In the center of this full-blown political crisis is US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, who has been getting tremendous pressure to resign from the Democrats and from anti-war groups. Asked by Indiana Senator Evan Bayh whether stepping down would show how seriously the US is taking the crisis, Rumsfeld responded, "That’s possible." Simply put, the Bush Administration is on survival mode. The Democrats have Team Bush on the ropes in their struggle for a victory this November.

Although the counting isn’t finished yet, the perception is GMA is expected to win. It is important, however, that her margin of victory is credible. I received a long-distance call from our friend the Venezuelan Ambassador to the Philippines Milena Ramirez. She was extremely concerned about the credibility of the elections. She believes that there has been too much cheating and it is undermining the credibility of the electoral exercise. She is hoping that things will not get out of hand. Milena, by the way, is soon leaving the Philippines after spending six years as the Venezuelan Ambassador to the Philippines. She is expected to move to her new post in New Delhi in a couple of weeks. After spending so many years in the Philippines, Ambassador Ramirez has gotten to be very concerned about the situation in the Philippines. She and her husband, Don Carlos, have made so many friends in the country that one would think they’re Filipinos. Like most of us, Ambassador Ramirez is hoping that people particularly all over the world will believe in the outcome of the elections.

So far, the SWS Exit polls showed GMA ahead by 40.84 percent against FPJ’s 32.26 percent and projected that she will have a margin of three million. If the SWS lives up to accuracy in 1992 and 1998, then she has a strong mandate for the next six years. In fact, this projection encouraged a rally in the stock market after the Tuesday night "victory rally" spooked the markets the day before. Panfilo Lacson came in at third while Raul Roco and Eddie Villanueva were at the tail end of the survey. The same survey showed Sen. Noli de Castro leading with 46.56 percent against Sen. Loren Legarda’s 38.68 percent. Again, SWS predicted an identical margin of three million for Noli. Mar Roxas leads the pack with 48.64 percent in the senatorial race. The K-4 appears to be winning eight of the 12 contested seats.

Unlike in 1998 when Joseph Estrada won on the strength of the masa, or Class D & E, and Raul Roco had the support of the A, B, & C classes, the polls this time showed that there were no class votes. Equal proportions of A, B, C, D, & E classes appear to have given GMA a clear majority with the A, B, & C classes giving GMA 41.49 percent, 38.08 percent came from the D class, and 42.98 percent from E class.

Having observed elections in the Philippines for over 30 years, it is clear that these elections are marked more by what divides us than what unites us. The electoral exercise clearly shows the depth of the divisions we have right now. With the politics of polarization coming full circle since 1986, I can only hope that we move on to the next stage of political consensus. These fissures are a real threat to the nation. The next President should regard these as warning signs of an impending system collapse. Let’s face it, the winner doesn’t have the luxury of time. Our democratic system is in need of fundamental reforms. This would mean specifically the multiparty system that has allowed popularity and polarized politics to threaten our way of life. A two-party system enables future leaders to be rigorously screened and trained. In addition, surveys are not good for a multiparty system and an electorate that still requires some maturing. Voters end up changing their minds because it creates the impression that a trailing candidate still has a fighting chance. I’ve heard of a cabdriver who abandoned FPJ after four months of exposure to the candidate’s sinking ratings. Another bad effect is that surveys generate protest votes as voters shift their votes as a protest statement to the leading candidate or to the Administration. Surveys are, however, good for a strong two-party system

The constitutional scheduling of local elections every three years is a sure-fire formula for bad governance. There wasn’t much wisdom in this. More often than not, a newly-proclaimed victor sets his sights on the next election, which is only 36 months away. As a result, there is hardly any time for governing or reforms. On the national level, constitutional reforms are an imperative to make the shift from a presidential system to a federal parliamentary system. Filipinos have to understand that a prime minister whose term can be cut short by a no-confidence vote from Parliament is more likely to govern more effectively than a president who has tenure. It all boils down to accountability and to swift political reprisal. I believe this is more appropriate for an essentially Latin country in Asia. I hope that GMA fulfills her promise to support constitutional reforms to make us politically stable and attractive to investors.

There is no question that "credibility" is the key word to describe these elections. If people do not believe the outcome then we will be worse off than we ever were after EDSA 2. We were lucky with the first two People Power uprisings. The third one almost succeeded but the fourth will surely be a disaster and could be the last one. For people who believe in the Chinese feng shui, the number four means death. And death it will be for democracy. For now, people are just watching.

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